Meloni, Crosetto, and the Real Face of the FdI

https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence/news/italian-defence-minister-questions-relevance-of-nato/

Meloni has one face for Brussels and Washington, and another that she has revealed in her history. Has she changed? Has she mediated? Has she learned that it's one thing to campaign as an opposition party and another to actually govern? Maybe. The jury is still out.

But here we have her Defense Minister indicating a very different view - one in keeping with the nationalism of the Brothers of Italy (FdI). Nationalism emphasizes state sovereignty over international obligations. As such the European Right tends toward Euroscepticism.

But what about NATO?

For some on the Right, their feelings hark back to Charles de Gaulle who realized that NATO was a tool of the American Empire to dominate Europe. NATO and its Atlanticist foundation would always subordinate Europe to American interests. As such de Gaulle pulled out of NATO's command structure and there's good reason to believe some of the subsequent assassination attempts made against him were instigated by the CIA.

Some have found NATO useful for pragmatic reasons and yet at different times have argued that it no longer serves any purpose. That moment first came in the early 1990's and the two Trump terms have proven nothing less than a gift for this line of reasoning. Trump would make it easy to dismantle to pull out of NATO.

Most of these Right-wing groups do not buy into the Anti-Russian scaremongering campaign. They understand that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was provoked by NATO expansion - and likewise that NATO's claims of being merely defensive are objectively false.

In addition it must be understood that the Right is not unified in terms of social conservatism. In a place like the Netherlands, the Right champions Western values vis-a-vis the cultures of Africa and the Islamic world. For them the West is about the Enlightenment, individual rights, and equality, and as such they support feminism and homosexuality - which are condemned in Africa and the Islamic world.

Other Right-wing groups think of the West in terms of Christendom and its values - whatever that happens to mean. As such, they condemn at least some Enlightenment values, and homosexuality. They may or may not condemn feminism. It depends on how it's understood. Meloni is a case in point. Obviously a feminist, she does not champion that cause and points instead to tradition even though she herself does not follow through on it. Nor can she make any real claims to being a Christian and given her proclivity for cohabitation, her 'conservative' credentials are also in doubt. Generally speaking (and despite their claims) these modern Right-wing groups are not all that conservative. They are nationalist and that contains plenty of dangers and causes for concern.

These groups tend to look to Russia not only as a non-threat but as a potential ally in a global struggle against Liberalism and Islam. It cannot be denied that for some of these groups their anti-immigrant values are also tainted with racial ideology. For some it's more about culture, but for many it's both culture and race - even if the latter is not openly emphasized.

Crosetto represents the real feelings of the Italian Right as represented by the FdI and elements of Lega. The question is - where does Meloni actually stand?

A case can be made that in order to govern, Meloni has made concessions and hidden her true feelings behind a charm offensive and an impish smile. But it should not be forgotten that there are tensions simmering beneath the surface and these have been exacerbated by the age of Trump. For her part, Meloni must balance and placate these elements even while riding the wave of power in the larger context of the EU.

Does Crosetto really want NATO to expand its mandate in order to remain relevant? I think this is a disingenuous statement. European governments are struggling with the demand for increased military spending. Spain in particular is beginning to balk at Washington's expectations. Crosetto's suggestion would simply break NATO as it would increase spending and demand for troops and equipment. Smaller countries would start to fall short of obligations and face sanction - and it would create political turmoil allowing Right-wing parties opportunity to campaign for a NATO withdrawal.

In reality, Crosetto's statement is a warning to Meloni who is basking in a moment of popularity and power. Since Merkel's departure, Germany has been knocked down a couple of pegs and continues to struggle both politically and economically. Macron was once poised to be the most powerful player in Europe but he has faced his own struggles and is hampered by his deep unpopularity. Meloni is riding high and became a critical player in light of EU policy regarding Ukraine, immigration, and much else. EC president Ursula von der Leyen more or less relied on Meloni's support to retain office. For Meloni, these are the good old days.
And yet, for FdI members like Crosetto, feelings are mixed. He is not a fan of NATO or the EU and at this point must be wondering just what has happened? Is Meloni going to pursue their agenda or not? She would probably make a case that with increased standing she will have the power to implement FdI policy. And yet some in her party are starting to wonder if she's just a sell-out. We're also seeing further tensions emerge with coalition member Lega offering criticism and Salvini is clearly still eyeing a path to power. He has gambled and lost more than once, but he's waiting for the moment in which the Right starts to turn on Meloni.

And though it's too soon, the recent Africa investment deal signed by Meloni and the EU is certain to generate some criticism. Supporters will tout this as a way for Europe to step into the gaps not filled by the US, Russia, or China. Right-wing critics are likely to see this as more Italian money flowing into the coffers of Brussels investors and beyond. Others will simply see this as Italy receiving compensation for its role in EU immigration. This investment plan will allow Italy to control the flow as the say, as well as pursue energy investment revenue.

The momentum against NATO is growing within the far right. Crosetto's statements were made in light of the pending NATO summit. Giuseppe Conte the Five-Star (M5S) leader and former prime minister has floated the idea of a counter-NATO gathering. The Trumpite movement in the United States continues to celebrate JD Vance and his reprimand of European leaders. Europe itself is still seeing the fallout. Some have 'stepped up' as the US would see it and are ready to increase spending. Rutte, the Secretary-General is clearly nervous as demonstrated in his obsequious and obeisant conduct during the Netherlands summit. He's trying to keep Trump on board while he sells Trump to NATO members.

Others are ready to walk away - knowing that Trump cannot be trusted, Article V is an empty pledge, and the days of US domination are coming to an end. At some point Meloni will have to make a decision. As Carlo Bastasin of Brookings put it - will she become Merkel, Thatcher, or Mussolini? A European statesman, a conservative, or a nationalist? The clock is ticking.