Attacking Chinese Targets in Tajikistan

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/26/tajikistan-taliban-border-clashes-whats-behind-them-why-it-affects-china

This is a story unlikely to get any attention in US media but it has American fingerprints all over it.

Though Washington fought a long war with the Taliban and lost, the truth is America still wants to utilize Afghanistan's unique geostrategic position. The Taliban and Beijing have made friendly overtures to each other but they're not natural allies and if anything Beijing would be fearful of Taliban hosting or sponsorship of Islamists - and in particular Uighur Salafist forces.

The US of course would like to see this very thing as it continues to sponsor the political arm of Uighur Salafist militarism. And there are undoubtedly hundreds (and maybe thousands) of Uighur al Qaeda and ISIS veterans from the Syrian Civil War that would love to take the fight to China. And the US would like to help them. Afghanistan is a natural base for such efforts. And they've attacked targets (and specifically Chinese targets) in Central Asia before - the Chinese embassy in Kyrgyzstan in 2016, as well as Chinese engineers on a Pakistani dam project in 2021.

While Kabul and Washington cannot (at this time) enter into an open or formal alliance, the day may come - Biden hinted as much, suggesting the Taliban and Washington could join forces under the pretense of fighting ISIS-K.

In the meantime Afghanistan remains chaotic enough for militants to work and apparently they are launching attacks against Chinese interests in neighbouring Tajikistan. While we can't be sure these are Uighurs, it fits a pattern we've seen elsewhere - even down into Southeast Asia.

Attempts to tie the captured gear to these groups and their sponsors is inconclusive. The Americans left massive amounts of gear and weapons behind and so while some elements are certainly American, it's not conclusive evidence of American support. And in all likelihood the Americans would (were they to dole out weapons and gear) acquire the goods from a third party - so as to leave grounds for plausible deniability. The US is not quite ready to blow up the Chinese border in Central Asia - at least not yet. But all of this is in preparation for future operations and a coming war. The option for a Western Front and an insurgency will remain very appealing to Washington.

I found the mention of Balochistan to also be worthy of note as that's another area of critical Chinese investment - the Belt and Road (BRI) port of Gwadar.

The Pakistanis are always quick to point the finger of blame at India, and New Delhi certainly has attempted to project itself in Central Asia but it seems unlikely Modi would want to provoke Beijing at this time - given the fact that he has angered Washington and the West with regard to Russia and BRICS.

Additionally Gwadar is critical for Afghanistan and to suggest the Taliban would make trouble there is dubious at best.

The article points to ISIS-Khorasan or ISIS-K which is at odds with the Taliban to be sure. They've been fighting a low-grade war for the better part of a decade, even before the American departure in 2021. But to attack Chinese interests in order to embarrass the Taliban and create an awkward diplomatic situation for them - that seems rather indirect, subtle, and out of character. If ISIS-K wants to hit the Taliban, they will hit targets within Afghanistan - hoping to foment public anger and instability leading to a groundswell that will bring the Taliban down. During 2021, they hit the Kabul airport and a Shia mosque in Kandahar, and a Kunduz mosque in 2022 - a suicide attack perpetrated by an Uighur member of ISIS-K. They've also attacked schools, police stations, hotels, banks, buses, and the Russian embassy in 2022. And in January 2026, they attacked a Chinese restaurant in Kabul.

It's clear they are hostile to China, all the more given the Uighur membership in their ranks. And so a case can be made that since the Taliban has clamped down on them in Afghanistan they may look to expand their horizon in terms of targets. Maybe - it's hard to say. The other thing is - these groups will sometimes overlap. On the one hand it's ISIS, but on the other hand it may be a Uighur faction (allied with other Uighur militants) that's driving this - such as the group known as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), or as it sometimes called the East Turkestan Islamic Party (ETIP). While Washington designates them as terrorists, their political allies (such as the World Uighur Congress) are headquartered in the United States and sponsored by the US government.

The US is officially an enemy of ISIS-K, but it wouldn't be the first time the US has collaborated with such enemies. It certainly worked with al Qaeda in Syria - and backed the installation of al-Sharaa. And more than a decade ago, many argued the US was working with (to some extent) the groups that later coalesced into ISIS - again in the context of Syria and Libya.

The article also raises the question of drug smuggling routes. Remember the US and its proxies have been involved in this trade for years and Washington has repeatedly resorted to the drug trade in order to finance clandestine operations.

The evidence is circumstantial at this point but these attacks immediately drive me to think of Uighur Salafists and American intelligence operations. Perhaps time will tell. I will certainly keep watching this part of the world that has once again been left behind.