Since
the 1990's the United States has successfully laboured to woo Chad away from
the French sphere of influence. Chad signed a big deal with Exxon in 1999 and
has worked to aid US policy with regard to Sudan. The US has long opposed
Khartoum and sought to facilitate the creation of South Sudan. American
Christian groups and business interests have played no small part in this.
Chad's own rebel movement was backed by Sudan and overlapped with the war in
Darfur. Once again Chadian and American interests overlapped. Khartoum was the
enemy, the same Khartoum that in the early 1990's harboured Osama bin Laden.
Now, the US
is utilizing Chadian forces to move into Nigeria. While no one wants to see
Boko Haram continue their murderous activities, don't be fooled. This is just
as much about resources and securing Nigeria which has become very important as
an oil state. The problems in the northeast will not solve the problems down on
the Niger River delta but it's a step in that direction. The US also seeks to
counter Chinese influence and Nigeria is a great prize. It must be preserved.
The creation of South Sudan was also a great feather in the American cap.
Turning off Sudan's oil tap was meant to hurt China as well.
But it
hasn't gone according to plan. The Chinese aggressively sought to forge ties
with South Sudan and as they have their own troubles and have faced some grief
in the UN, Juba is turning to China for support.
This leads
to a tug-of-war and another theatre of tension between the Chinese and the
United States. It has been suggested the US is backing the opposition to Salva
Kiir in an attempt to eliminate China's access to South Sudan's oil. Kiir feels
betrayed by the US and Christian conservatives blame Obama for the breakdown.
But if events are being understood correctly, then it would seem that corporate
interests as well as the State Department and CIA would like to see Kiir either
gone or changing his tune with regard to China.
The US
cleared the African board in the late 1980's and early 1990's abandoning South
Africa, UNITA and Savimbi as well as Mobutu of Zaire/Congo. Not all the breaks
were clean but the US moved to support a new generation of African rulers, some
of them almost as dictatorial. The new generation is compromised of Uganda's
Museveni, Rwanda's Kagame, nations such as Kenya and Ethiopia and the one that
few have noticed... Chad.
US movements
in Francophone Africa have also played a part in the tensions with France. Yet
once Chirac was gone, this began to calm down. Sarkozy is exactly the kind of
man the Americans want to see at the French helm, and they would like to see
him return to power. Hollande the current French president is at this point is
too weak to raise much of a protest to US geopolitical machinations. Some will
take the long view. Given America's track record with proxies, Chad may in the
end return to the French sphere. Their actions will eventually generate domestic
strife and make them an Islamist target. Few know of or remember Chadian involvement
in the recent trouble in the Central African Republic (CAR). The US military
has forged close contacts with the Chadian military and is supplying them.
Don't be
fooled by the US announcement they no longer have troops in Chad. There are
numerous designations that can be given to 'troops'. In addition even if a base
is said to have 80 or even 200 troops that can be and often is misleading.
Everyone in the military is familiar with the acronym TDY. It means temporary
duty. TDY troops are regularly assigned to bases but don't 'count' as stationed
troops. You can have hundreds and even thousands of troops with all their hardware
rotating in and out and yet not be in any official press release.
No one can
set a timetable or predict the fallout, but eventually these hatched chickens
will come home to roost. It may be many years from now but when great conflicts
erupt in the future few will remember the events and schemes that helped set
the board. This is almost universally true but sadly it is especially true when
it comes to Africa. Chad will pay a price as Kenya already is. Few African
powers will be able to strike the US directly but they will most certainly
strike at its allies and economic interests.
I am most
saddened by the Christian record with regard to these events. It is a case of
history repeating itself. We saw this all before with the Cold War and its
fallout in the 1990's.
The violence and instability have been escalating as of late. CAR brokered a deal between most of the militias but the country is a holding ground a spillover for the other fighting groups in the region. Instability in the Congo is bound to affect the periphery.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/us-centralafrica-fighting-idUSKBN19L24X