There's so much that could be said right now about events in the Middle East and the conflict between Israel and Iran and the potential for a wider war including the United States and others.
For my part I think about scenarios in which the war could go sideways or the aftermath of a regime collapse.
Marcos has committed his country to the path of war, and yet is this really what the people of the Philippines want? Do they understand what it will mean when the US has bases there - when it stages missiles batteries there?
I more or less dispensed with these 'miscellany' posts in the summer of 2023 due to the ongoing stalemate. There wasn't much to say.
The big events or developments since then are the August 2024 Kursk Offensive in which Ukraine tried to flip the narrative and invade Russian territory. After some initial and yet modest gains the situation turned into another stalemate and now as 2024 comes to a close, they are rapidly losing this captured territory to Moscow.
At the end of September, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or QUAD met in Delaware. This is the most comprehensive of the new network of alliances created by Washington to combat China. The Quad is comprised of India, Japan, Australia, and the United States. This is in addition to AUKUS which has a more robust security element. What's important about the Quad is that it incorporates India and as such is critical to the US 'Indo-Pacific' framing of geo-politics and strategy vis-à-vis Beijing. AUKUS has more teeth but the Quad has the potential to be more important.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/03/06/south-korea-kill-web/
This ship has long sailed and the situation between North and
South Korea is a bit different due to the geopolitics, unresolved conflict, and
sheer proximity, but the systems outlined in this article demonstrate what must
be called the offensive nature of missile defense systems.
As missiles fall on Poland, and there are talks of escalation and retaliation, it's a good moment pause.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/9/turkey-resumes-gas-exploration-in-the-eastern-mediterranean
Under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey continues to carve out what
can only be described as an independent geopolitical course. Long viewed as an
essential member of NATO, due to its unique cultural and geographical position,
under Erdogan's AKP the Eurasian nation continues to anger its longtime allies
and sponsors by reaching out to Western rivals and adversaries and in pursuing
policies that the EU and NATO would describe as reckless, defiant, and even
treacherous.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been placed into a difficult position by recent events and yet he hardly deserves sympathy. As he has specifically sought to exploit Turkey's Eurasian identity and potential role as a kind mediating power – then he should have expected this, being in a situation where he has the power to deal but few friends. His recent diplomatic attempt to bring the forces of the Ukraine War together has been interesting. It was also noteworthy that his recent summit attempt had little support from the United States which clearly (and despite its official rhetoric) doesn't want the war to end.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/11/16/turkey-baykar-drones-ukraine/
Once again it must be emphasized that the Turco-Russian
alliance rests on a very flimsy foundation. Historically the Turks and Russians
have been enemies and one of the areas of confrontation (among many) centres on
the arc stretching from Southern Ukraine, across the Crimea, to the North Caucasus.
The Muslim populations (such as the Circassians) and in particular the Tatar
ethnic groups have long found affiliation and identity with the powerful
Ottoman state to the South.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/12/3/lira-crash-slams-turkeys-factories-farmers-and-retailers
The value of the Turkish Lira has plunged and given the country's debt burden, Turkey is facing rapid inflation. President Erdogan has attempted radical measures but some economists believe the sweeping moves have been reckless and have only exacerbated the problem.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/10/28/india-tests-ballistic-missile/
As China intensifies its missile programmes, India is keen to
do the same. While Beijing's primary focus is on the US Navy and in particular
its fleet of aircraft carriers, an East Asian War would almost certainly
involve India. Beijing and New Delhi have been on edge for decades and thus
India is pursuing this technology and as with all tests – sending a signal.
Taiwan watchers are nervous as there are some indications that China may act in light of an outbreak of election-related chaos in the United States. The argument is that if the transition of US power is in question and there is civil and economic upheaval, Beijing may decide to make its move against Taiwan.
