The Death and Burial of Kemalism

http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Come-on-Children-Mosque-Project-marks-the-end-of-secular-Turkey-49050.html

With the West's open opposition to him (except when it comes to potential conflict with Russia vis-à-vis Syria) Erdogan has decided to dispense with the pretense of Kemalism. The secular Western-oriented ideology founded by Mustafa Kemal 'Ataturk' governed Turkey from its founding in the 1920's up until the early 2000's and the rise of the AK Party.

In the past any attempt at challenging the Kemalist Establishment's grip on power was met with a military intervention, usually in the form of a coup. There have been plots and attempts against Erdogan culminating in the failed 2016 coup which almost succeeded. Erdogan was but minutes away from being assassinated by a hit squad.

While still a member of NATO, Ankara has clearly abandoned any aspirations of joining the EU. The regional politics of the Middle East and increased pressure from the United States has driven Turkey into an a-historical relationship with Moscow, one the US is keen to see broken. This relationship is strained and as I've argued elsewhere is unlikely to last long term but for now Erdogan's playing of both sides of the fence has placed him in a unique position.

In some cases he's allied with the EU, such as with the Libya/Eastern Mediterranean Maritime Crisis. In Syria he's helped the EU and with reluctance joined in on the campaign to oust Assad. However, he's also pursued his own goals with regard to the Kurds, Turkish defense and the wider Middle East. However on both of these issues (Libya and Syria) he's taken up a position that's hostile to Moscow. Once again you can be sure Washington will work these angles as much as possible.

This small move on the part of Erdogan, this embrace of a school programme points to reality... that Turkey is once more seeking to carve out its own unique niche. This is Erdogan (at least in part) returning to an older vision he had more than a decade ago, that of Neo-Ottomanism... as opposed to Kemalism. He has lost a great deal of the wind that once filled his sails and stands in a somewhat weakened position and yet clearly his actions (which some might perceive as reckless) are born of a realisation that he has little left to lose.

And so it is in this context, that he's formally removing the restraints of Kemalism and introducing his moderate Turkish-driven Islamism into the public sphere. Western audiences will not understand this and never have, equating all Islamism with the extreme Salafi violence of groups like ISIS and al Qaeda. That's not what Erdogan is about. He's not trying to establish a theocracy dominated by Deobandi or Wahhabi forms of Islam. Additionally he's not trying to eradicate all expressions of Islam that don't line up with the mainstream or even other religions that don't conform to the state vision.

But he does want to see Islam given a preference and for Turkish identity to be tied to Islam. His is the difference between someone like James Dobson who argues for preferential pluralism, a Christian dominated public sphere that is tolerant of dissent versus say Theonomy which in its original form argued for the suppression of not only other religions but heterodox forms of Christianity. Erdogan stands with the former vision with regard to his Islamism.

For secular Turks, Erdogan's rule has been unfortunate. Christians have also felt pressure as radicals have been emboldened. And yet others, Erdogan's base, the working and middle class Turks who support him, they appreciate the fact that they can express their Islam without fear and without discrimination. The Kemalist ideology which prevented women from wearing a hijab at university was to many of them... a step too far in the direction of secularism.

Erdogan has persevered and defeated his internal enemies. It required a massive purge but he obviously feels secure at this point... or some might read it as an attempt to reach out to his base and strengthen their allegiance. Regardless his actions will further polarise the country and when he falls, the result and transition is likely to be volatile.

His recent moves in Syria have brought his nation to the point of crisis. Under economic strain he's taken the route of 'punishing' the EU by opening the refugee floodgates. He's angering everyone, even his ostensible allies. He's either going to come out of this as a major player bridging Europe and the Middle East or... weaker than ever and all but broken. Western reporting needs to be consumed with caution as much of the coverage is inaccurate, providing snippets and limited biased glimpses of the situation. Though generally hostile to Erdogan the shift in coverage over the past week has been remarkable as the West certainly champions his Syria campaign and the resulting tension between Ankara and Moscow.

From Washington's standpoint it's a win-win. The Syria campaign has collapsed but if they can bloody Assad's nose in the process, so be it. Erdogan's relationship with Moscow is being severely tried and in antagonising Europe, the US hopes that nations like France and Germany will assist in helping to bring Erdogan down. France has long been hostile to him but Germany with its large Turkish diaspora has to play its hand with a little more care.

Turkey finds itself in an interesting but dangerous moment. Regardless of the outcome, the old Turkey of Ataturk's vision is rapidly disappearing.