Central Asia Tilts Toward Beijing: Reflections on the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-xian-meeting-marks-a-new-chapter-for-china-in-central-asia

China is stepping aggressively into the gap left by four years of Donald Trump. The US has not wholly abandoned Central Asia by any means and the Biden administration has yet to act but at this point Beijing has the advantage and they're seeking to capitalize upon it.

As the articles and commentaries point out there is palpable symbolism at work in the selection of Xian as the place for this summit. Xian was the effective starting point of the massive trade network the West came to know as The Silk Road.

At this point in time as Washington and its allies cannot do much to stop Beijing's gains in Central Asia (and much of Eurasia for that matter) they continue to resort to an aggressive propaganda campaign – one in which China is demonised for its treatment of the Uighurs and the like. It's a convenient and certainly exaggerated narrative, one that could easily be picked up on in reference to Tibet. But Tibet (or Hong Kong for that matter) does not have the prospects of an operation in Xinjiang, and it does not have the geographic proximity to Central Asia. The US ran operations in Tibet in the 1960's and while the logistics in Xinjiang are difficult, in Tibet they were almost impossible.

But for all of Washington's appeals to morality and liberal values, the truth is the United States has little ethical standing given the nature of its economy and the conspicuous attempts by the Pentagon and its proxies to encircle China and control Eurasia – an issue relate to the larger geo-strategic sphere which includes both Russia and Iran. It's almost comical to read US propaganda directed at Central Asia that attempts to warn them about Chinese financing. Do they think these people are that stupid or do they really believe Wall Street offers a better deal?

And while few doubt China's ability and will to use power in an evil manner, the provenance of the charges regarding Xinjiang are suspect as is the US/UK campaign to amplify them. The refrain is both deafening and exhausting as anyone who partakes of Western media is subjected to nearly constant coverage of this topic – in every case assumptions and circularity dominate the reporting and the case being made.

While it could not be said with any kind of authority before the rise of Xi, China has indeed embraced expansionism. But Western media never points out this simple truth. It's already a regional power. In other words, they're Asians expanding in Asia. No one ever questions what the Americans are doing there, on a continent not their own, on the other side of the world.

So much more could be said about China's relationships with Central Asia and One Belt One Road (OBOR) in general. But Afghanistan in particular is on everyone's mind at the moment and the timing is very interesting. The US is pulling out. So what's next?

It can be safely asserted that Afghanistan is key to China's plan for securing control of Central Asia. The very pipelines sought by the US pre-9/11, the projects that never came to fruition and seem impossible now, those that were to traverse Afghanistan and Pakistan and bring Central Asian oil and gas to the Indian Ocean are a real possibility in the near future – under the aegis of Chinese investment.

With America out of the way, Beijing will cut a deal with the current Kabul government and the Taliban – or just the Taliban if they happen to re-take Kabul in the near future. It will be interesting to see if Pakistan collaborates with Beijing just as they did with the US in the 1980's.

There are many signals that point to the fact that China is consolidating its hold on Central Asia and that they have all but 'won' the contest. The US pullout of Afghanistan guarantees it. I do not say this as one who laments the US withdrawal. The US presence in the region fueled a bloodbath and Afghanistan's 40+ years of woe are due at least in part to US machinations. The US has been a force for evil and viewed through a moral lens, the retreat is nothing to regret. That said, one evil will certainly be replaced by another.

The US sought to secure its hegemony and unipolarity by riding the wave of 9/11. Twenty years later the US looks weaker than ever. And while the US launched a global war and series of proxy wars, the two main military operations, Iraq and Afghanistan have ended up being gifts to America's enemies. Few would dispute that the main benefactor of the 2003 invasion of Iraq has been the Shiite regime in Tehran. And now (it would seem) China perhaps more than any other nation, more than neighbouring states Pakistan and Iran, will benefit from the America's misguided and murderous adventure in Afghanistan.

Historians will look back at this time and one wonders if 9/11 won't mark the beginning of a national decline and suicide and yet few on the Right would dare to challenge their own internal narrative – that Bush and Trump made American strong. In fact these two would-be Caesars did more to harm the American Empire than did any of their predecessors. The US appeared weak by the mid-1970's to be sure but by then the USSR was in a state of serious decline and its malaise surpassed that of the United States. But this is the 2020's, and the foe is not the USSR but CCP-led China, a nation on the rise.