A Ukraine Miscellany (I)

As the military campaign rages, the lies continue to multiply on all sides as do the dangers. It is evident that Ukraine presented no security threat to Moscow in itself. That's not why Russia invaded. This conflict is over Ukraine's use as a staging point and its symbolism in the larger NATO-Moscow struggle. For the unfortunate people of Ukraine, their land is once again a battlefield – it's been a recurring motif for the peoples of Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, and Western and Southern Russia throughout their histories – a region Timothy Snyder referred to as the Bloodlands.

For Moscow, Ukraine is a potential (even critical) threat in the hands of NATO. For NATO, Ukraine is a potential threat in the hands of Moscow and it would represent a setback in terms of the alliance's true goals and aspirations. Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is a serial liar. The American-dominated alliance is not defensive and its conduct after the end of the Cold War repeatedly testifies to this reality.

Hitherto, the NATO claim of a looming threat resulting from Ukraine being placed in Moscow's sphere could be rejected, but Putin's invasion has destroyed his narrative and any moral standing he might have once held in this larger geopolitical contest. The invasion is simply fodder for the West's PR machine. There's no fixing or undoing this and while his actions make a kind of grim sense in the larger context, at the end of the day war is murder and Putin's already blood-stained hands are now dripping with gore. There's no defending him on this point. Even those who argue he's on quest to restore Christendom and defeat the Sodomite West – sorry, this is war. It means death and dead innocents.

The Western coverage and moralising is nauseating. These same politicians and members of the media have defended and even cheered on America's and NATO's wars that were based on lies and resulted in mass death and the destruction of entire societies. Listening to them and their tone of moral superiority is literally repugnant. But right now the blood is being spilled in Ukraine and Putin's actions are repugnant too. You can't argue with that.

Further, the NATO narrative is subject to a wider range of speculation, some of which is proving dangerous. For example, we're hearing that Putin wishes to reconstitute the Soviet Union, an absurd and baseless claim based on a deliberate misunderstanding of a statement he made years ago regarding the collapse of the USSR and its meaning. Putin is no communist and his words have been manipulated. But after the invasion of Ukraine, the suggestions (as foolish as they are) will seem plausible and work on the minds and fears of the public.

This way of thinking insists that he's going to make a move on the Caucasus, and Central Asia, but more pertinently European nations like Moldova and the Baltic States. Some take this further and insist his ultimate goal will be to reconstitute the Warsaw Pact satellites – which suggests he has larger designs on Eastern Europe – territory that is all solidly in NATO hands.

These arguments are baseless and dangerous because NATO is using them as a justification for a massive build-up of forces along its Eastern frontier. Do they really think Putin is going to attack NATO territory? I don't think so but they're sending him a very threatening message and this is coupled with their pouring arms into Ukraine – including fighter aircraft. The whole point of his invasion of Ukraine was to do so before it became NATO territory but he had to know that NATO would use this as a justification for a proxy war and now a de facto state of war between them. This has been in the works for many years. They can't invoke Article 5 but they're more or less doing it anyway, waging a type of war for Ukraine, and militarily backing Ukraine, and to be cynical – using its people.

NATO wants to see the situation become a meat grinder. Thus far, Putin has shown restraint and the loss of life has been (relatively speaking) quite low. But as resistance intensifies he's put into a quandary. His propaganda vis-à-vis the Russian public begins to fall apart and he either has to back off (which would be politically and geopolitically disastrous) or he has to 'step up' the campaign and bring in heavy artillery and more serious measures which will result in larger death tolls. His moral basis for the war (even in Russia and the Eurasian context) collapses and the conflict just gets uglier. NATO is happy to do this and to see thousands of Ukrainians die in the process. It's brilliant in terms of their propaganda machine which is running at full steam, now incorporating everything from vodka, to musicians, to sport. It's amazing to watch.

The Ukrainians could simply surrender and save their country – not it's political autonomy (which it hasn't actually possessed in nearly twenty years), but its culture, infrastructure, economy, and the like. One hopes the ceasefire talks will come to something – but who knows?

At present they have a corrupt and manipulated state with dangerous Right-wing elements operating in portions of it. Corruption is one kind of authoritarianism. That which Putin would implement is another type.*

Some in the West are calling for a No-Fly-Zone, a disastrous move that would entail NATO and Russian aircraft coming into direct conflict. The Russians possess advanced anti-aircraft systems – some of the best in the world. Shooting down NATO planes will lead to a wider war as will NATO attempts to eliminate Russian missile batteries. Defensive protocols demand that strikes are launched to eliminate NATO batteries which will certainly be located in NATO territory – and thus again, we have an Article 5 situations, and a wider war.

Putin has literally walked into a trap and while NATO isn't directly shooting at Russian soldiers (at present) the two entities are in a state of de facto war. It's abundantly clear that NATO is looking to escalate the conflict and the fact that Zelenskiy could stand up at the Munich Security Conference and speak openly about acquiring nuclear weapons – and not be condemned by the Western political Establishment or the media, demonstrates the degree to which NATO is committed to removing Putin. These statements (I believe) played a significant part in his final decision to launch the invasion and the overt war-posturing stance of NATO (and the rhetoric accompanying it) has led him to step up his nuclear readiness. He's drawing a line and the situation is becoming quite dangerous. Both sides have been reckless with regard to the nuclear talk but Putin's action didn't help the situation. The situation is quickly drifting toward a kind of sequel to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The NATO strategy at this point is pretty clear. Feed the war. Turn it into a meat-grinder. Let Ukrainians die. Force Putin to bomb cities and shell them with artillery. Generate media depicting dead civilians and dead children. Destroy his narrative and place him in an impossible situation. The goal is to topple him. If the war drags on, the antagonism between the Kremlin and the Russian military will intensify – rumours suggest there are already tensions. It will reach a point that Putin's leadership is no longer viable and he'll be removed.

Or, force him to back down and retreat. The loss of face will destroy his mandate and through one means or the other paralyze or completely bring down his regime.

Also, the longer the war continues the more public protest will emerge. The Russian state has worked to block a lot of Western means of feeding this kind of social unrest in Russia itself but in the chaos of war things change – especially as the Russian economy is now entering a period of turmoil.

Again to state the obvious, it's a dangerous situation and the more NATO presses on the borders the more likely it is that something can get out of hand.

Pray for peace and for the people of Ukraine. Pray that the Churches maintain a right testimony and don't fall prey to nationalism, bloodlust, and vengeance. The best solution would be for some kind of Non-aligned intervention that transforms Ukraine into a neutral country – a Slavic Switzerland but that's unlikely and frankly, NATO doesn't want it. Both sides are invested and there's no easy way to step down this conflict. Zelenskiy could do it or get the ball rolling, but if he defies NATO his days in power will be numbered. The longer this drags on the harder it will be to declare a ceasefire. Pray it happens soon. The fundamental problems will not go away and frankly Pandora's Box has already been opened – but at least for now the bloodshed will stop.

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*Would he eliminate the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and put it back under the jurisdiction of the Moscow Patriarchate? He might. And we know that he persecutes Evangelicals and others he fears are connected to Western money and politics. They've given him a reason to fear this I'm sorry to say.

The Jehovah's Witnesses are presently suffering in Russia, not due to politicking on their part but because their New Testament ethics have earned the special ire of the Russian Orthodox Establishment and the bestial Russian state in that they're viewed as subversive to Russian identity and anti-patriotic in their refusal to vote and participate in the military.

Would Putin bring this kind of regime to the Ukraine? He might. Is the Christian response to take up arms and kill? Sadly, the Church has abandoned the New Testament on this point and to its shame it's heretics like the Jehovah's Witnesses that are actually making a heroic New Testament stand. The answer of course is a resounding 'no'. Do not resist with arms. Flee if you must, but neither Ukraine, Russia, nor the United States are 'motherlands' for the Christian. We are strangers and pilgrims. We do not kill to defend these entities.

Sadly the bulk of the visible Church utterly rejects these Biblical teachings and will not hear them. I don't expect Evangelicals to take fanatical blood oaths and tie soil-talismans about their necks (like Romania's Orthodox-rooted Iron Guard) as they go into battle to die a glorious death for Ukraine, but I'm sure many will succumb to the overall ethos.