The Echoes of War in Asia

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/04/10/indonesia-us-war-games/

Even as the War in Ukraine rages on and the eye of the world is focused on the NATO frontier, there are storm clouds forming over Asia and signs that US militarism is preparing to assert itself on the Chinese frontier as well. Far from being passive, the Biden administration has been at the forefront of the re-assertion of the US Empire.

From increased war games to an acceleration of weapon sales, the US is also feeding and fueling Australia's increasingly militaristic stance – a situation facilitated by the fact that Scott Morrison is an Evangelical with close ties to America's Right wing political machine. Indeed, Australia has now assumed the role of a frontline state, part of the US quadriga in the Asia-Pacific – the other parties being Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. And as seen with the exercise in Indonesia and with US overtures to the Philippines and Vietnam, the US would like to expand this formation and strengthen it.

Taiwan is arming and taking an aggressive posture vis-à-vis China and one wonders if the narrative-driving-events geopolitical phenomenon seen in Ukraine – a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy, will eventually force China's hand as well. It is more likely that Xi will learn from Putin's reckless mistakes and not fall for the same trap. I think many commentators will agree that China is better at playing the long game than either the United States or Russia.

Historical tensions between Japan and Russia seem to be re-emerging – with Russia certainly on the back foot at present. Sakhalin has long been a point of tension between the two nations. Always in search of energy resources, Japan eventually acquiesced to Russian claims and in the mid-1990's became a partner with Moscow in developing the natural gas and oil resources in the Sakhalin-Okhotsk region and yet now they're threatening to pull out of the deal. Under pressure from the West and in the interest of their own militaristic (and irredentist) goals, Tokyo is reconsidering the arrangement as are several Western companies invested in the project. China stands ready to sweep in and pick up the investments – a development Japan does not want to see.

In addition to the strained geopolitics and tensions within the South China Sea it is important to watch the energy struggles as they too played a significant part in the tensions over Ukraine and the sequence of events that led to the actual war.

India who had under Bush and Obama moved solidly into the US column, has now (since Trump) backtracked on many aspects of the relationship. On board with Obama's attempt to contain China, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has since moderated his position and has demonstrated an unwillingness to break completely with Moscow – India's historic ally.

From the purchase of Russian weapons to a refusal to go along with the West's sanctions regime, New Delhi has frustrated and even angered Washington, and Modi (once the darling of Wall Street and the American Establishment) is increasingly facing public condemnation from American political voices and the media. And this comes at a time when the tensions over Sri Lanka are intensifying – a socio-economic situation that has direct connections with US militarism in the region, China's port deals and fiscal control, as well as internal Indian politics. The Rajapaksa brothers who currently dominate the government of Sri Lanka are playing the Sinhalese nationalist card in a cynical attempt to distract from their inflationary woes and the growing political pressures they face. But this has ramifications in India as the Tamil population of Sri Lanka which fought a long and bitter war with Colombo also comprises a significant bloc within Southeast India. Any trouble in Sri Lanka cannot be ignored in New Delhi.

And instability has returned to Pakistan with the ousting of Imran Khan. While the Sharif family is currently in power and thus the government of Islamabad has simply reverted to one of its traditional political blocs, the forces and tensions that led to Khan's removal have not been resolved. The economic storm clouds still overshadow the country.

Once again, energy markets, inflation, and shortages are affecting the entire world economy. This is related to Covid logistical snarls, but it's also related to market speculation, debt, inflation, and the coming credit crisis. But all of these extant problems have been amplified and exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and the sanctions on Russia. The nations of Central Asia are also feeling the pain and are attempting (in parallel to Turkey) to provide diplomatic mediation.

There are opportunistic forces at work in the region operating alongside aggressive geopolitical strategies. Collectively this is spreading a cloud of angst and gloom. The situation is characterised by an increasingly fragility and as the world's financial and geopolitical problems are compounding and becoming more acute – the danger of a chain reaction is real.

Returning to Europe, the militarist elements in countries like Sweden and Finland are experiencing a moment of triumph and are quickly steering their nations into NATO. Alliances and profits are sought and the war allows these elements within society to make their move. They are not alone.

There's nothing we as Christians can do about any of this and we shouldn't worry. Christ said as much.

We should make sure we're not part of the problem or profiting from the war machines or the woes and exploitation of others. We need not fear, but as the world is changing we should be vigilant and seek to understand. With the various crises there are destabilising cultural currents and massive propaganda campaigns. We're seeing this even now. People get caught up and swept away. This shouldn't happen to Christians but they are particularly vulnerable at this time as the Church has been overwhelmed by false teaching which encourages worldly thinking, political activism, and ethical syncretism. The hireling leaders that dominate its media and denominational spheres are for the most part corrupt and in other cases cowardly – which can also be an expression of financial and ethical corruption.

Only through vigilance and a constant return to the Scriptures and our conforming to its teachings can we hope to navigate these storms. This is true for Christians in the West but it's also particularly true for those who live on the front lines so to speak. Christians in China, Japan, India, Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Russia, and the NATO perimeter are all facing real tensions and in other cases actual war. If principles are not deeply established, the fears of the moment and the powerful currents of world events will simply sweep people away. History knows this tale very well. We're foolish not to learn from it.