The Unionist Nightmare in Ulster

https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-to-travel-to-belfast-amid-brexit-protocol-crisis/

It's the nightmare scenario the Ulster Unionists long feared. With the recent Sinn Fein victory in the Northern Ireland elections, the unionists face the real prospect of a vote for Irish Reunification. Long feared but a distant prospect, the campaign has picked up momentum in light of the 2016 Brexit vote and now seems within the realm of possibility.

With Brexit, the pacification of the Ulster border with the Irish Republic in light of the 1998 Good Friday Accord was thrown into doubt. While the UK and Ireland were both EU members, the Common Travel Area (a kind of micro-Schengen arrangement for the British Isles) afforded easy travel between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. The economic boom helped in many respects to alleviate tensions and cement the peace. But Brexit changed all that, and Ulster was left in an impossible situation. Either a hard border would be re-established which would certainly place the region under an economic cloud – and potentially a social and political one as well. Or, the border could be left open and the border controls would be established between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. This would amount to a kind 'reunification creep' as Northern Ireland would still be connected to London politically but practically speaking it would fall increasingly under the aegis of Dublin. For the Unionists this (now more-or-less implemented) scenario remains unacceptable and the antithesis of all they have fought for. And yet even with the functionally open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, there are problems that need to be resolved. London wants the EU to make concessions, but from the standpoint of Brussels, granting the UK or even Ulster special status with EU privileges is tantamount to rewarding them for the rejection and betrayal (as some see it) that was Brexit.

But now democratic forces are turning against the Unionists. In a historic victory, Sinn Fein has won a majority in the assembly. As per the power-sharing agreement they cannot dictate terms to the unionists (who have a veto), but they're going to be hard to stop. The fear is that the Good Friday apparatus is doomed to crumble and the peace deal will be scattered to the winds.

And it must be remembered that Sinn Fein is also a political party in the Republic and as it has sought to re-brand itself in recent years, it's experiencing a surge in popularity. Breaking with the IRA-connected era of Gerry Adams, a new generation of youth and women now dominate the leadership and the values of the party resonate with an increasingly post-Catholic Irish culture.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is trying to run interference. Having spent the past few months trying to out-Churchill Volodomyr Zelenskiy by means of grandstanding and warmongering, Johnson has sought to detract attention from his own domestic mismanagement and scandals. And yet the situation in Northern Ireland risks becoming acute and it's clear he wants to oversee and shepherd events. If Sinn Fein moves for an independence vote and wins – and yet is blocked by Johnson's administration, there will be trouble. He wants to make sure things don't come to that – that such a vote never takes place.

And then there's the fear of a ripple effect. The Scottish Nationalists still wish to break from the UK and their previously failed campaign was revivified by Brexit. If London is forced into some kind of reckoning in Ireland, then the SNP is likely to make its case once more.

For the Unionists, there's a strong religious element to these questions as in many ways they've woven their Unionist identity in with their Protestant Christianity. Their Anti-Ireland politics are almost inseparable from the historic Protestant-Catholic conflict. Indeed, Ian Paisley is turning in his grave. His life's work is facing collapse and while he was initially hostile to a peace deal in the 1990's and subsequently was viewed as fatally compromised by some Unionists for finally agreeing to it – the fears expressed at the time by those to the right of Paisley, now seem almost prophetic. Their nightmares are becoming manifest before their very eyes and their dreams of an explicitly British and Protestant Ulster are seemingly doomed.

And yet in many respects the religious angle has faded and given the success of the Evangelical-Catholic ecumenical movement, the Unionist's international support (so often cast in anti-Catholic terms) is also on the wane. There's no South Africa to rescue them this time with a fresh supply of arms. It's more likely that their campaign against Sinn Fein and Irish Unity will be cast in terms of Left-Right politics or in terms of pure nationalist interest. Sinn Fein is hardly a die-hard Catholic party and the various permutations of the IRA that were still active at the end of the troubles, and the handful of outliers that still remain viable are not built upon Catholic foundations. Some are even Marxist and their fight is more in terms of anti-colonialism.

But for the Unionists, the hour of crisis draws nigh and even now may be at the door. This could go in a lot of directions and yet Johnson has to be pro-active or he's going to lose what little support he still has among the Unionists and could end up with a massive headache – and possibly a political defeat that could put an end to him. He's going to be at the forefront of the talks but does anyone trust him? Does anyone even have a basis to take him seriously? These are valid questions that have yet to be answered.