01 April 2023

The Dismemberment of Russia

https://www.asianews.it/news-en/'Regionalists'-want-Russia-dismembered-and-under-international-control-57911.html

The US media and Washington's political mouthpieces can downplay this question all they want but the discussions are happening and at a greater pace than seen before.


It's clear enough that Kaliningrad is priority number one. The former Prussian territory has been a Russian enclave since 1945 and as it lies within NATO and EU boundaries, the leaders and strategists atop the military alliance want it eliminated. It's not yet clear if they would partition the territory or grant it some form of autonomy sans the Russian Federation. This move will also serve to contain Russian to the far eastern extremity of the Baltic.

In my opinion the next area of concern would be in the Caucasus. The US supported Chechen rebels in the 1990's and the entire region on the north side of the mountain range is comprised of peoples that were incorporated into the Russian empire – largely in the nineteenth century. Most of them are also Muslim and exhibit close ties to both Turkey and Azerbaijan. If these republics broke away from the Russian Federation, a buffer would be created as well as something of a beach-head – which is why Russia has adamantly refused to let these North Caucasian states secede. These territories are strategic as they're on the 'Russian' side of the Caucasus. The buffer sought by the West would allow a nation like Georgia to join NATO without a direct confrontation and open the door to the future manipulation of Armenia.

With these areas secured, the next area of concern would have to be South Russia in general – a little more of a challenge in terms of historical claims, but conceivable.

This strategy concerning the Caucasus and South Russia would open up the doors to the real prize – the Caspian Sea and thus access to Central Asia. You can be sure there are more plans in the works, especially with regard to the lands on both sides of the Urals, and certainly within areas such as Tatarstan. But these projects rely on the success of these earlier plans.

This scheme is dependent upon a Moscow regime that is broken and subjugated, or one weakened and rent by a civil war – possibly resulting from an invasion. These scenarios are not possible with Putin at the helm and thus the push for his removal by coup, assassination, or otherwise. A strong alliance with Beijing checks this agenda and risks derailing it. And a push toward these goals with Putin or another Russian nationalist in power – would likely result in a nuclear exchange.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.