Israel, Iran, and the Turks

https://eurasianet.org/israel-emerging-as-source-of-tension-in-azerbaijans-special-relationship-with-turkey

This was inevitable and I was pleased to note that others are noticing it as well. Baku has been effectively wed to Ankara since the break-up of the Soviet Union in the 1990's. Their cultural ties are pervasive and there are significant numbers of Azeris in Türkiye proper, and they also share a common enemy in the Armenians.

But Azerbaijan has some other issues related to the Caspian Sea, its oil, and its relationship with Iran. The oil question has meant that Baku has fostered other relationships - particularly with the West. Türkiye is of course a NATO member and for years aspired to enter the European Union. Azerbaijan has been placed in a difficult position - it was humiliated in the 1990's by Armenia and has now (in the 2020's) secured its revenge and its ascendancy in the relationship. For this and other reasons, its relationship with Russia has been strained. The oil relationship brought the nation into favour with the West and consequently this opened the door up to Israel. Tel Aviv and Baku have a mutual interest - they're both antagonistic to Iran.

Tehran rules over what is historic or by some reckonings Southern Azerbaijan and also has a large Azeri population. In fact the Ayatollah Khamenei is partly of Azeri extraction. The Azeris are Turkic but Shia, and Russian culture still holds sway over significant portions of the nation. Iran also has a significant Armenian population and due to historical tensions over the Trans-Caucasus region, Tehran has long been an ally of Yerevan and yet viewed Baku with suspicion - especially when they opened up to the West in the 1990's.

The region today known as Azerbaijan was historically part of Persia and yet ripped away by the Tsars of Russia - a point accentuated by the Soviets. With the collapse of the USSR, Tehran assumed that Azerbaijan would return to its historic status and fall under its sway but the Aliyev dictatorship in Baku (which took power in 1993) had different ideas and moved the young nation toward NATO-member Türkiye, the United States, and Israel.

Baku also signalled that it was interested in uniting with the Azeri populations of northwest Iran and the historic nation centered around the city of Tabriz - a claim viewed as threatening and aggressive by Tehran. What should have been a cordial relationship quickly became one of tension.

This created a natural opening for Israel and Tel Aviv has not only intelligence operations there but military outposts as well. Many Iranian leaders view Azerbaijan as an Israeli proxy right on their border - something Western media never pursues or explains.

Referring to the relationship as a roller coaster would be an understatement. One minute it looks like Baku and Tehran will patch things up, then it turns sour again.

For years Israel was in a de facto alliance with Kemalist Türkiye. It was natural as both were closely allied with Washington but over the past twenty years that dynamic has changed. Ankara is still in NATO - but barely. Erdogan has pursued a policy that has put him at odds with both the United States and Israel and so it follows that eventually this would play out in his relationship with Aliyev and Baku. Some will want to exploit this tension and exacerbate it. In the past one would look to Russia, Iran, and Armenia but today it could just as easily be Washington and Tel Aviv who would like to see Erdogan isolated and removed from power - and they wouldn't weep if the means were violent as the US-sponsored coup attempt in 2016 indicates. Erdogan barely escaped assassination. It's driving the NATO leadership into a fury to think that he will take Ankara into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Washington is upset over its plans to joins the BRICS bloc and yet the idea of losing the country forever - its removal from the NATO bloc is unthinkable. The plan continues to be - work toward Erdogan's removal.

The Gaza War has stressed the entire region and Erdogan (already dealing with deep domestic problems) is feeling the heat. Azerbaijan's support for Tel Aviv is generating anger and Erdogan is reluctant to act as the situation with Baku is already stressed. The last thing he needs or wants is another headache - both Washington and Tel Aviv would like to see it develop into a migraine.