Armenia's Shift to the West

https://eurasianet.org/russia-rages-over-us-military-exercise-in-armenia

These military exercises signal Yerevan's shift to the West and yet another Western incursion on the borders of Russia, another invasion into its historical sphere.

Will it result in another war? It depends on how far the West pushes and how serious the situation is rated in Moscow. While Washington would argue that it and NATO are peaceful and defensive - this move is anything but. This is a provocation and it's meant to be understood as such. And while American leaders might publicly declare they don't want a war in the Caucasus - in fact this is just what they want. The US long sponsored the Chechen rebels until Putin defeated them and (in a kind of triangulation) set up a Chechen nationalist authoritarian regime - that seems autonomous and yet is closely tied to Moscow.

The US is more than willing to blow Georgia and Armenia apart in order to wrest the region away from any Russian influence and turn it into a beachhead for NATO planes and missile batteries.

The statements indicate Moscow has been angered by this move and yet what will come of it? The US will want to quickly establish relations and put troops in the region and then if and when the Russian state attempts to interfere, the US will cry foul and Russian aggressions, and do all it can to twist European arms into signing on with the project of Western geopolitical aggression. Black is white and white is black.

The standoffs will come over natural gas supplies and the Russian base at Gyumri. It will be winter in a few months and while the next election isn't expected until 2026 - it could easily happen earlier. Iran will also be watching as Armenia has long been part of an unofficial triad with Moscow and there are many Armenians in both Iran and Russia. And more critically, Iran and Armenia share a border and Tehran will not be keen to see US troops there. At this point there's nothing to suggest the US is hoping for a base but the very fact that these exercises are taking place and that Yerevan is swinging over into the Western column is a warning shot - and yet both Iran and Russia have their hands full. You can be sure the timing is not a coincidence.