Given Armenia's recent tilt away from Russia, and Azerbaijan's mostly pro-US stance, the moment seems ripe for the EU to sweep into the South Caucasus and do some bridge building. As I have long suggested, the EU offers a Western and yet non-American alternative, and one more attractive given the geographic proximity to the region.
Additionally the US seems unstable and reliable. All the nations of the South Caucasus are watching developments in Ukraine, and while Europe is militarily weak when compared to the United States, the perception is that Brussels is more reliable and actually more ideologically driven in terms of Liberal values, human rights, etc.
If the EU can establish stronger ties with Armenia, it will serve to erect a strategic barrier to Russia's influence in the region. It also can potentially split a long-time functional alliance that existed between Moscow, Yerevan, and Tehran - the latest signal that many seemingly old alignments and alliances are in a state of flux and decay. We're witnessing significant geostrategic realignments throughout portions of Eurasia and the Middle East.
The elephant in the room in terms of the South Caucasus is the ongoing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Any regional player, whether it be the EU, US, Russia, or China must treat this situation with caution and finesse. If one side is pushed too far or feels excluded, they can quickly turn to a more powerful backer.
A stable South Caucasus will also facilitate energy markets in Central Asia - and this is highly significant. This is what everyone is really after. This opens Central Asia up to additional trade agreements or even treaties the West has been desperate to make.
Ironically at this point it looks like Europe is more likely to benefit from these developments than the United States. Though Trump insists the US is respected now more than ever, the truth is quite the reverse and the EU leadership knows this all too well.
Right-wing Evangelicals have attempted to appropriate the Armenian cause in recent years - a cause they long ignored due to the GOP's pro-Ankara stance throughout the Cold War and into the 2000's. But this too is in a state of flux. I look for these groups and para-church 'ministries' to be an arm for US economic and strategic interests - sometimes in opposition to the EU, its interests, and its values. They will facilitate meetings, disseminate information, and (possibly) help to channel money. Unfortunately the only gospel they bring is one of cheap grace.
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