Different Takes on the Geopolitics of the Nepal Floods

https://strategicspace.nbr.org/strategic-spaces-of-the-sino-nepali-borderlands-making-and-breaking-trans-himalayan-trade-relations/

https://www.asianews.it/en/east-asia/china/the-himalayas-why-gyirong-is-a-key-location-for-beijing

https://thediplomat.com/2026/09/nepals-floods-upset-its-china-india-balancing-act/

The Strategic Space article helps to explain the geographic divisions with Nepal and the nature of China's relationship to the region.

The second article is from Asia News, a Catholic publication focused on Eurasian issues and as such has a slightly different read on Beijing's motivations visa-vis Nepal. Both articles speak of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the role China plays in the northern region of Nepal. But the Catholic article is far more cynical, viewing China's incursion as not merely motivated by trade and a desire to police its own borders (and the critical border with Tibet), but to expand and dominate.

One is right to wonder just why Beijing has cultivated a close relationship with the tribal people in Northern Nepal. It does seem like a potential beach-head for Beijing into Nepalese regional geopolitics and even internal affairs.

However, as noted the Covid-19 pandemic as well as the recent disastrous floods have seriously curtailed Beijing's efforts. And yet, there is a black market that operates by means of mountain paths that circumvent Chinese border controls. China has effectively put a black-out into effect with regard to the damage done in Tibet and yet Beijing is keen to trumpet its rescue efforts. In the meantime there's a struggle taking place and with the NGO's pouring into Nepal, there will undoubtedly be spies working for both India and the Americans - not necessarily in concert, but focused on their own interests. The US-India relationship does have an Anti-China element to it, but this is tempered by India's membership in BRICS and its move away from the United States under the first Trump term - a move more in the direction of non-alignment.

The Diplomat article has a bit of a different take, focusing on Nepal's attempt to counterbalance its two powerful neighbours (China and India) and how the floods will limit Nepal's ability to pull this off. Its posture has shifted from tactics and strategy to one of near desperation.

By some estimates Nepal hosts the fastest growing Church in the world - mostly of the Charismatic variety and in particular among the Dalits or Untouchables. The state has passed anti-conversion legislation in 2015 and 2017 and yet the Church continues to expand.

There have been episodes of persecution and anti-Christian violence from the 2010's up to the present. What will be the fallout from the floods? There are both secular nationalists, Maoists, and Hindu extremists at work in Nepalese society. Will they take out their frustration on the Christian community?

And let us pray for the Church in Nepal - pray that it is spared, and pray for those who have suffered as a result of the terrible floods. But let us also pray for sounder teaching, and that Nepalese believers would not equate Christianity with Enlightenment rationalism and values - both attractive to people coming out of a context of Hinduism, social oppression, traditional cultural mores, and poverty - ripe picking for the prosperity gospel message. It sounds as if many believe Christianity to be more rational and compatible with the modern world than traditional religious paradigms. Maybe that's true, maybe not. But it can also easily be twisted and abused.