While I do not question the Grey Wolves attacking Chinese in
Thailand and Turkey or units being deployed to Azerbaijan, Central Asia, the
North Caucasus and Ukraine, I do question some of the conclusions being drawn
about ISIS.
We know there are factions within the Turkish Establishment
that are connected to the Grey Wolves and they certainly had CIA ties in the
past. I doubt that's changed. In fact there's much to suggest to the CIA is
very active right now working within the framework and horizon of Pan-Turkism. This
where Pennsylvania based Fethullah Gulen also comes into the story.
Pan-Turkism or Turanism is the domain of the Grey Wolves and
they have proved quite useful and able both in the past and in recent years.
They are paramilitaries (which sometimes include terroristic acts) and it can
be fairly said that at times they have functioned as death squads and
assassins.
The Grey Wolves and the elements within the Turkish
government that support them are not Islamists. They're Kemalists, Turkish
Nationalists. They're the people that have (in the past) worked against
Islamists trying to take control of the Turkish government. And we're not
talking about Wahhabis, we're talking about very moderate Islamists. I have a
problem believing these elements are working in league with ISIS. In many ways
ISIS represents their worst fear and their greatest foe. Someone might counter
and argue that factions of the Grey Wolves are associated with Turkey's BBP or
Great Union Party which purports to have Islamist leanings. This might explain
why Erdogan has at times praised the Grey Wolves (or so it is reported) and yet
at the same time likely fears them.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/turkey-syria-grey-wolves-emerge-as-jihadists.html#
It might be more correct to say the Grey Wolves have evolved
into covering a wider ideological spectrum.
Of course in typical Turkish-Byzantine fashion there's also
the suggestion that not all Grey Wolves are really Grey Wolves. It is argued
that some groups attacking the Kurds are masquerading as Grey Wolves but in
reality are Erdogan's agents.
It's quite complicated. But again it must be stressed that
generally speaking Kemalist Nationalism is against a specifically 'Islamic'
identity for Turkey. They are Turks first, Muslims second.
Chechnya has experienced this same phenomenon. Their Islam
was always syncretistic and Sufi-flavoured, that is until the wars with Russia.
Since then their society has been heavily infiltrated by Saudi-style Wahhabism
and Salafi elements. The US has been happy to back this and in some cases they
have used Turkey to help facilitate the arming of these groups.
That said, I have no problem believing there's some
collaboration. There are common enemies and interests, the defeat of Assad as
well as the degradation of both the YPG and PKK factions of the Kurds. Many of
the Kurds have embraced forms of Marxism. The Grey Wolves hate ethnic
minorities but they also hate internationalist ideologies like socialism and
Marxism. This explains why (in part) the Kemalist administrations and the
United States were willing to back them. In the 1970s they were killing
Leftists.
And of course ISIS wants to destroy anyone who does not
embrace their agenda. But they harbour a special hatred for secular Muslim
leaders like Assad and Azerbaijan's Aliyev.
Are both elements of the Grey Wolves and ISIS being
facilitated by Baku and introduced into the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? I know
there's been a lot of suggestion that Erdogan is collaborating with ISIS and
again I think in terms of buying oil and even providing arms... there's a real
possibility. He wants Assad to be toppled.
Although it would seem that the US has worked more to facilitate
al Nusra rather than ISIS, this may be a point where Erdogan is working his own
angle. I don't doubt it. Both Washington and Erdogan want Assad removed. But
for Turkey there's also the question of the Kurds. Erdogan knows the US is not
a true friend.
But I do doubt that Azerbaijan's Aliyev would willingly
import ISIS fighters into Transcaucasia. That doesn't mean they're not there
but there's got to be more to the story. They might migrate to Chechnya but
they could just as easily turn against Baku. The Aliyev regime is exactly the
kind of government Islamists hate. It's secular, corrupt, dictatorial and
treacherous. It's a friend to the Turks, the United States and Israel.
I think there is evidence to suggest tacit US support for the
Grey Wolves being introduced into the North Caucasus as well as funding and
support for Chechen fighters, some of which are allied with al Qaeda and now
even ISIS.
A lot of this is really about Russia. The US and the Turks
want to make Putin bleed and for the Azeri Turks, if they can get a little
revenge on the Armenians while they're at it... so much the better. Trouble
with Armenia is a way to stir Russian angst and anger.
The proxy war in Syria is now generating secondary proxy
wars. The situation is very dangerous. There are many schemes and dark deeds at
work. If trouble breaks out in Azerbaijan it's also likely that Iran would be
drawn into the picture. They would like to teach Aliyev a lesson.
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