12 May 2016

Deep State Disturbance: The Resignation of Davutoglu


This is probably premature as undoubtedly more will come out in subsequent days and yet there may be one angle to this story that is not being considered in most media reports.

Erdogan is somewhat understandably in a state of paranoia. Since coming to power there have been forces working against him both from within and without.

His allies are two-faced and scheming and he knows the United States is collaborating with the Turkish Deep State, elements of the government and in particular the military. US-backed Fethullah Gulen has agents in the military, police and quite possibly connections to paramilitary units that have known CIA ties.

The media is focusing on Erdogan's consolidation of power and now his willingness to purge the AKP of dissidents and those who are not demonstrating proper loyalty and subservience.

Turkish Prime Minister Davutoglu is perceived as the latest victim of Erdogan's megalomania. He's been forced out and/or possesses enough integrity to stand his ground and refuse to capitulate to Erdogan's abuse of the law.

That may be. But there's also another possibility. Erdogan is suspicious of anyone with Gulen ties. The Eregenekon or Sledgehammer conspiracy lives under the shadow of scepticism and massive amounts of conflicting data and confused reporting. Some believe the whole thing was an AKP ruse to consolidate power. Others would argue that it was an expected result of the AKP coming to power and their refusal to capitulate to US/NATO demands. Obviously it failed and has driven Erdogan into an authoritarian framework. Is this his pride and his own desire to retain power or is it a genuine desire to 'save' or 'liberate' Turkey from Western dominance?

Perhaps a bit of both.

Is Davutoglu a Gulen agent? Despite his sometime condemnation of Gulen, it's not implausible, especially when considering the penetration of government and the confusion over control of the military and policy in general. Turkey has been cutting a lot of deals as of late, some that seem to contradict official policy and stated strategy. Ankara is involved in a difficult dance and there's not a little sleight-of-hand at work in their policies with regard to Syria, the Kurds, Iraq, ISIS and now the refugees and the relationship with Europe.

And then once we throw Israel and Azerbaijan into the mix it gets really complicated.

Erdogan might have grown suspicious of his prime minister. Whether warranted or not, I cannot say. Davutoglu's 2013 trip to the Gulen compound in the Poconos is of interest but at this point no one can really say what took place there. Was it a plea for reconciliation, a plot, a bit of both?

Is Erdogan a dictator in the making or a caged tiger that's getting desperate and starting to lash out? Or is he not even that? Perhaps Erdogan is a wolf caught out on the ice... ice that's cracking, and in his desperation he's lashing out, even at those who are trying to help.

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