BRICS was launched in 2009-10, as a joint economic venture on
the part of the ascendant (one might say 2nd tier) economies of
Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In many respects China is
certainly not 2nd tier, but at the same time Beijing is not fully
integrated into the globally dominant Western system. BRICS was viewed as an
opportunity for these nations to exert power and influence and by working
jointly to escape Western domination.
That said, the goals and aspirations of these nations do not
always coincide.
BRICS is by no means defunct and it would seem there is a
commitment on the part of all factions to keep it afloat. Nevertheless Brazil's
economic downturn, India's overt move toward a US alliance, China's internal
troubles and growing tensions with India etc... have put the BRICS vision into
jeopardy.
Since the Cold War, India has often (in a Non-Aligned
capacity) tended to look toward Russia as an ally and a source of weapons and
technology. Almost the only basis of strategic friendship with the United
States was India's harbouring of the Dalai Lama in the late 1950's a period in
which their mutual enmity with China brought New Delhi and Washington together.
The Tibet paramilitary projects of the CIA were aided and facilitated by India
but the alliance was weak and didn't last.
The West's alliance with Pakistan and as of the 1970s with
China drove India further into the arms of Moscow. But the collapse of the USSR
began to change this and the US move against China in recent years has driven
New Delhi and Washington back together and it would now seem under Narendra
Modi's embrace of Western style Capitalism and investment, the alliance is in
the process of fortification.
Hence it is no surprise to read of growing tensions and
frustrations between New Delhi and Moscow. Joint military projects are now in
jeopardy. Those that are being completed have been significantly reduced in
scale and scope. The friendship has by no means ended and India continues to
purchase systems from Moscow, but it's clear the relationship has been
downgraded.
There are reasons for India to maintain these tenuous ties.
New Delhi knows it would be an error to rely too heavily on US armaments and
thus enslave its military to US logistical controls and bureaucratic
governance. India will purchase weapons
from the United States but they will also look to nations like France and
Israel. This diversity is strategic as India doesn't want to become completely
dependent on the United States. The Ayatollah Khomeini's regime had to deal
with that reality, a leftover consequence of the Shah's policies during the
1980s war with Iraq.
In addition, a limited utilisation of Russian hardware might
even be encouraged by Deep State elements within the United States. They afford
opportunities for espionage and possible doorways (via Indian assets) into the
Russian military apparatus.
What of India's commitment to BRICS? Will Washington demand
New Delhi's withdrawal? Not necessarily and for many of the same reasons it
might be in New Delhi's interest to maintain the relationship.
Membership in BRICS will afford autonomy and again Deep State
elements in both Washington and New Delhi may wish for not only opportunities
for espionage but sabotage.
Nevertheless it must be assumed that on Wall Street, a weak
BRICS is to be preferred and that certainly seems to be the case at present.
These are stories to watch and consider as they will serves
as indicators or bellwethers of geopolitical faultlines, shifts and potential
conflicts.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.