Nazarbayev is a dictator and one supported by the United
States. He brought his geographically expansive nation into the Western bloc
during the 1990's. This move marked a major defeat for Russian interests and
any dreams of Soviet irredentism.
Kazakhstan is rich in oil and natural gas and occupies a very
important geopolitical position. It is part of the great puzzle that is Central
Asia and thus it is a player in Cold War II...the renascent struggle between
Russia and the West, between the nations that would see the world abandon uni-
and bi-polarity and return to the historical norm of multipolarity and regional
spheres of influence. In other words it's the struggle regarding whether or not
America will master the world in some capacity or be relegated to being but one
power among many.
There are many ways of looking at this question and not even
everyone within the American Establishment agrees as to what model, form or
style works best.
Nazarbayev's record is appalling and he would be condemned in
any Western context or when judged by Liberal political values. And yet he is
supported because he is toeing the Western line.
The region is a troubled one. Afghanistan sits on its
periphery and it was clear even in the 1980s that Central Asia would be dragged
into an era of turmoil. The troubles in Afghanistan were beginning to bleed
over across the lines into Soviet Central Asia.
Ahmed Rashid's Jihad:
The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia provides some good and
non-controversial background to the social and political tensions at work in
the region. Written in 2002, the book is somewhat dated at this point, but only
slightly.
Since 9/11 and the resurgence of Russia under Vladimir Putin
there has been some trouble. Putin of course is painted as the aggressor though
in reality he is merely attempting to roll back the influences of Wall Street,
the Pentagon and the US State Department.
There have been troubles in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
Tajikistan has remained relatively calm since its civil war in the 1990s and
yet many paramilitary groups are based in and traverse its mountainous
territory.
While Uzbekistan is probably the great prize, Kazakhstan
comes in a close second. It's a nation on the rise and this article signifies
the internal struggle between pro-Moscow factions (located in the KNB/NSC) and
the Nazarbayev regime which remains firmly in the palm of Washington's hand.
And yet 'firmly' must be qualified. Nazarbayev is not so
foolish as to simply hand over his regime to the good folks in Washington DC.
He's in a rough neighbourhood and must get along with his neighbours.
Kazakhstan is part of the SCO which some view as a counterpart to NATO. And yet
the SCO does not wield the same kind of power as NATO, nor is it as
unilaterally dominated as NATO is by the United States.
Beijing and Moscow view the SCO as a means to counter NATO
expansion and in particular US bilateral military agreements with the nations
of Asia. Its record thus far has been mixed. Kazakhstan has not enslaved itself
to the West as a proxy in the same way Ukraine or Georgia have done but at the
same time the level of US influence within Astana cannot be overstated.
Nazarbayev is 77 years old and he has controlled the country
since 1991. His passing will mark the end of an era. Everyone, including China
is preparing for that day. They are moving their pieces, setting up the board
and waiting for the right moment to strike. China's OBOR (One Belt One Road) or
the New Silk Road is about a lot more than just trade. It's all smiles and
handshakes at the summits but the intrigue is worthy of a mafia film.
It can be safely said the Russians have lost this round, at
least in Kazakhstan.
See also:
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.