Turkey and Questions of Kurdish Independence

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41237812

Turkey continues to move away from NATO in both symbolic and concrete terms. Erdogan continues to dismantle Kemalism, the legacy of the country's founder Mustapha Kemal Ataturk. Turkey was formed in the wake of the Ottoman Empire and it was created on the basis of a secular pro-Western ideology which has dominated the country since its founding almost a century ago. The turn away from this foundation has all but destroyed the basis for Turkey's relationship with Europe and the United States. While Erdogan's dreams of Neo-Ottomanism have been wounded and waylaid they have not been abandoned. Erdogan hopes to bring Turkey into a position of power by means of its geography, cultural influence and its ability to project power within its unique and varied sphere.

From their standing vis-à-vis the Balkans to the Middle East and even into the Caucasus and Central Asia, Turkey is a unique nation. Asia Minor has a long history of political twists and turns and yet whatever power is ruling, whether Byzantine, Ottoman, Kemalist or the AKP the role is always the same. It is a pivot nation and thus one so vied and contended for in the halls of power. Turkey holds and is the key to influencing a wide range of nations and regions.

Some Turks might view the period from the 1950s to the early 2000s as one of aberration. The West wanted to make the arrangement permanent and all but controlled their nation under the auspices of Kemalism and NATO. But that means of influence and manipulation seems to be slipping away.

For a host of practical reasons Turkey is being pushed into a relationship with Russia though I contend it is one destined to fail as a reversion to historical norms will certainly put Ankara and Moscow in a condition of rivalry. This does not mean that Ankara will stay in NATO and even now Erdogan is using various corridors to divorce his state from the long-held Western grip. His recent trip to Iran to discuss among other things the Kurdish situation also signals such a shift in outlook and policy.

The still mysterious and likely Western backed 2016 coup attempt failed and despite the questions regarding its origin, Erdogan knows one of the greatest threats to him is represented by the American bases on his soil. While he is certainly utilising many tools, one of them is most certainly that of isolation. Relying on nations like Russia for armaments and increasingly allowing their military-security apparatus to work in concert with his own he is isolating and alienating the American command structure with his country and pushing Turkey out of the EU/NATO orbit.

Turkey is moving closer to the still nascent Asia Bloc, the SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This will align Turkey increasingly with the interests and agenda of Beijing and Moscow and set it at odds with the agenda of Washington and Brussels.

NATO has experienced defectors in the past and in every case it has led to trouble and bloodshed. One thinks of France under de Gaulle (from 1959-66) and Greece after the Turkish invasion of Cyprus and expulsion of the junta in 1974.

While de Gaulle's moves and semi-withdrawal was a blow to NATO they were not on this magnitude. Turkey's defection is unprecedented. At this point Turkey is still formally in the alliance but everyone can read the writing on the wall.

But at present we are on the brink of a new and as of yet unknown chapter to the story. Just as the Syrian Civil War is winding down we may be facing the next phase of Middle Eastern War. The Kurdish vote for independence in Northern Iraq holds the potential to rip apart the region once more and expand into a wider war.

Turkey will not stand for it and already the Kurds in Turkey's Southeast are under renewed pressure. Erdogan in using Islam as the basis for Turkish society as opposed to 'Turkishness' was able to foster peace with the Kurds but the Syrian Civil War and the rise of Kurdish Rojava called all of this into question.  The situation in Iraq will only make it worse.

Overlapping alliances and obligations could spin the situation out of control. Baghdad is not going to sit by and let the Kurds separate. Some forces in America want to partition Iraq and have all but turned on their Baghdad proxies, abandoning them to the Iranian sphere. They view partition as a means to control the resources and set up a new Middle Eastern geopolitic. The Israelis support this and have been closely allied with the non-Arab Kurds. This is in keeping with their historical outlook, allying with the periphery, working with all the nations and people on the other side of their immediate Arab neighbours.

Iran does not want to see the Kurds break away and in dealing with them and ISIS, Tehran finds itself in a strange parallel relationship with the Pentagon and its mission with the Iraqi army.

Some in the United States will want to support Iraq's integrity, others support the division. A newly independent Kurdistan will likely reignite some of the flames within Syria and perhaps lead to its partition as well, something already an open question. The Turks will likely invade but how will Baghdad respond? What about Tehran? Will Rojava unite with Iraqi Kurdistan? Will the Assad regime once more rely upon a Russian intervention to maintain its integrity? What will this do to the Ankara-Moscow relationship?

What would a coup in Turkey mean for NATO and the region? I certainly look for another attempt... but with a White House in disarray... will the Deep State risk it without the requisite political support, let alone stability?

There are also large Kurdish communities in Iran and the Caucasus. Will they be dragged into this? What about Germany which hosts large Turkish and Kurdish populations? Through their intelligence agency, the BND, Berlin has already been involving itself in Turkish politics and has collaborated with the CIA and its projects in the Balkans and Syria.

There are too many questions at this point but the potential implications are vast. The fabric of the Middle East and Eurasia as a whole is being pulled apart and is already threadbare. Something is brewing and we may look back and view the carnage of the past 15 years as mere prelude.