Trump Disappoints the PiS

https://www.politico.eu/article/warsaw-welcome-awaits-trump

Time and again Trump proves that he is no faithful ally. Poland's Law and Justice Party (PiS) along with its V4 allies has become a near pariah state in the EU. Warsaw has thrown in with Washington and has opened up its borders to NATO expansion and now NATO staging. Under the PiS, Poland has become a frontline state in Washington's new Cold War with Moscow.

The PiS leadership was looking forward to Trump's visit as a sanction, a stamp of approval and a mark of prestige as they have sought to carve a path independent of Brussels, a course that has come under great criticism by the advocates of the liberal order. The PiS which has closely allied itself with the Roman Catholic Church is considered Right-wing although there are other elements within the Polish political spectrum that are further to the Right.

Poland also stands alone in the V4 as the member that in addition to antagonising Brussels has also taken a strong anti-Moscow stance which leaves the government few options in terms of alliances. Britain is a possible option but of course British politics have been under a cloud since 2016 and London is essentially paralysed. That leaves Washington and of course a strong alliance with the United States is no small thing.

The Trump visit was to be combined with nationalist commemorations regarding the start of World War II and in light of pending elections. The PiS is looking for legitimacy and big headlines. Instead they got Mike Pence. For a party trying to lead their nation into the confines of the American Empire, to bring Warsaw to the status of First Tier satrapy... it was a rejection and an insult.

The administration has seemingly thrown a bone to Warsaw in the approval of F-35 sales, a nice replacement for the collapsed deal with Turkey. Poland's 32 jets can't quite replace Turkey's lost deal of 100, but I'm sure the folks at Lockheed-Martin (and Wall Street) are pleased.

Trump, ever self-absorbed and disengaged probably doesn't even understand how he left a new and potentially close ally in something of a lurch. The PiS is a party that seeks a close alliance with the Trumpist GOP. But he brushed them off and every diplomat and analyst out there is left shaking their head at his conduct. Some will rejoice hoping this leads to schism, others will simply point out that such conduct creates shallow friendships and once again Trump is (whether he means to or not) weakening American power and influence.

Of course for Trump himself the 'deal' is pretty simple. Bow to the United States and you might get a bone tossed at you. Fail to, and face Washington's wrath. The Trump posture can intimidate and some out of the needs of the hour will comply but such friendships are fair-weathered and will quickly dissolve when the storm clouds begin to gather. Trump's arrogance will in the end lead to a weaker American Empire and thus though we acknowledge he's a fool, his actions are hardly a cause for lament.