Covid Statistics, the CDC, and Comorbidity

The CDC numbers regarding actual 'official' Covid deaths has been out for some time. At first it seems shocking. What? Of all the 180,000+ Covid deaths only 6% are directly attributable to Covid? Everyone else had an underlying or pre-existing condition? Does that mean this has all been an exaggeration?

That's how many people understand it and when Trump recently sent out a tweet echoing these statistics the Internet went wild. Numerous Right-wing oriented websites picked it up and what I saw were several variations of the following deductive process.

94% of Covid deaths are due to underlying causes. Only 6% are directly attributable to Covid. Therefore the real death toll is under 10,000. Therefore, Covid is a hoax.

Obviously these people have never seen a death certificate and are unfamiliar with the concept of comorbidity. Deaths are often attributable to a combination of conditions and events which are concurrent or concomitant. Underlying or pre-existing conditions can be aggravated by the introduction of a new condition such as Covid. Someone might have a chronic condition which is potentially fatal but manageable – such as asthma or heart disease. But then when something (like Covid) comes along and aggravates the situation, their symptoms and the side-effects can make the situation serious and even fatal.

Or another way to consider it is that the underlying conditions make the Covid infection all the more dangerous. Its potency and destructive capability are enhanced by an already compromised system.

And again the symptoms or side-effects can be amplified by this process of concomitance leading to death. It may seem counterintuitive to some but in many cases it's complicated and it's not always easy to peg down exactly what a person died of.

The naysayers are supposing that all of the sudden in 2020 tens of thousands of people with chronic conditions such as heart disease, asthma and other respiratory problems – all potentially fatal if mismanaged – they all in a massive unprecedented wave suddenly died. The fact that they were infected by Covid-19 had nothing to do with it, right? That's the argument and it fails miserably.

Comorbidity is common. People that have cancer will often officially die of organ failure and yet does that mean they didn't die of cancer? The death certificate will usually list both. Is this somehow deceptive? No, it's understood by people who know what they're looking at. The person died of cancer even though it was probably some other specific event or condition that killed them in the end. That's a case of comorbidity

Again, people that have AIDS will often die of something like respiratory failure associated with pneumonia. Does that mean they didn't die of AIDS? Of course they did and it's understood.

If someone dies of cirrhosis of the liver it's usually understood that there was an underlying condition. In terms of comorbidity they died of cirrhosis related to alcoholism or perhaps hepatitis.  

And yet in terms of exact science, causal connections are sometimes difficult to make – but inductive experience and common sense allow for a strong probability of relation or cause-effect diagnosis. Absolute certainty is in fact a rare thing.

That fact that few death certificates specifically say 'Covid 19' has nothing to do with it. Nor does it suggest the disease is a hoax. Those that think so are suggesting there's a grand conspiracy of tens of thousands of health care workers in multiple countries – not to mention funeral home directors who have (in affected areas) spoken of unprecedented numbers of seriously ill and dead. This is clearly not a case of a bad flu season. This is something much bigger. It may not be 1918 but it is nevertheless very significant – certainly the largest pandemic event in one hundred years. It was in some respects an anticipated even overdue event and though the prospect generates gloom – there are probably going to be worse incidents on the horizon. In an age of globalisation it was bound to happen.

In the end, the only salient statistic is the number of Right-wing Americans that are not only badly informed but are willing to put their ignorance on display. To add to their shame even a ten minute investigation would reveal the folly of their interpretation. The true death toll is actually much higher than the numbers we have been given. The disease was present in late 2019 and early 2020, well before it was clearly identified and the shut-downs began. Many of these deaths were not connected with Covid but should have been. Medical officials didn't know what they were dealing with. And even after they did, there are indications that many more have died of Covid than have never been counted – especially in Latin America.

But in the context of the Church we have another problem – Trumpism. And once theologised it overshadows everything and Christians are now (in Christ's Name) spewing forth this nonsense, promoting lies and endangering not just the testimony of the church but people's lives.