11 March 2021

Obedient Croatia and the LNG Terminal on the Adriatic

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/croatia-kicks-off-lng-terminal-in-north-adriatic/

Rising from the fragmented war-torn disaster that was Yugoslavia, Croatia has been attempting to break with any 'Eastern' association and root itself firmly in the Catholic-Enlightenment West. This is essential to the Croat identity. Though of the same genetic stock as the Orthodox Serbs and Muslim Bosniaks, their history has been defined by alliance to the Habsburgs – in other words to the Latin West.


For years they were captive in a largely contrived and certainly artificial geopolitical structure known as Yugoslavia. Like Czechoslovakia, the manufactured nation wedded groups that weren't necessarily compatible and yet found common cause in that they were small, proximate and needed a unifying polity to protect themselves from larger neighbouring powers. Yugoslavia was such a creation and yet it was clear enough that when it fragmented (there was really no question of 'if'), that Slovenia and Croatia would 'peel off' and ally with the West.

And yet it wasn't so simple. The Croats were involved in some of the worst crimes of WWII and the fascist ideology resurfaced as Yugoslavia fragmented in the 1990's. And yet today many Croats wish to put these chapters behind them and look forward – looking toward the West. Croatia joined NATO in 2009 and to the surprise of many persisted in its application to join the EU which it did in 2013. Even now the government in Zagreb continues to pursue policies that will allow it to join the Schengen Zone in the near future.

And yet Brussels alone as a big brother or backer is insufficient. The EU is unstable and small nations need powerful friends especially in a rough neighbourhood like the Balkans. And so to no one's surprise Zagreb has also worked diligently to forge ties with Washington and the opening of a Liquefied Natural Gas terminal on the Adriatic coast is music to American ears – and specifically those of Wall Street.

Washington has been pushing hard to get LNG terminals in Europe as a counter to Russian gas brought in pipeline. These terminals provide an outlet to US energy and access to the large European market. Additionally the LNG serves a strategic goal in blocking Russian energy interests and ultimately (it is hoped) such energy and infrastructure partnerships will dissuade European nations from working with the Chinese.

Croatia has been obedient and they are sure to be rewarded. The US now has a strategic interest in protecting the coastline of Croatia and given the US presence in the Northern Adriatic, Zagreb knows their profile has been boosted. Whether it's the best option for the people of Croatia or Central Europe is another matter. It's a geopolitical move and one that favours US markets. You can also be sure that key elements within the Croatian Establishment also stand to benefit from this new terminal. They will be rewarded and that alone will prove an enticement for future projects. It's how the game is played.

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