Brussels and Beijing are caught in something of a standoff.
Both political entities have thrown down the gauntlet and now neither knows how
to get out of the situation. And you can be sure that if a way can be found,
the United States will pour fuel on the fire.
Who needs the other more? Who can outlast the other?
In other words, it's a test.
In the 1990s the US would have wanted the rival EU to fall
flat on its face but not today. Today it wants the EU to stand strong and
resist Beijing at all costs even to the point of breaking down the EU's trade with
China.
The US doesn't want a direct conflict with China – at least
not the China of the present. First it hopes to reduce China on a hundred
fronts, a strategy that hasn't had much success thus far. The US is looking for
allies and an EU in the wake of a collapsed China deal might look once more to
the US. The US will appear generous and fair but any deal comes with
concessions – a point the Europeans will remember all too well with the
Marshall Plan and its successors. The reality was the nations of Western Europe
all but lost their autonomy during the Cold War and even thirty years after its
end, they are still struggling to break free of Washington's control.
Most likely a compromise will be found in this
Brussels-Beijing stare down, but someone is going to blink first and lose face
as a result. The US would love to see Xi toppled but I have a feeling the
shakeup will most likely be in Brussels itself.
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