Vietnam and the Anti-China Coalition

https://thegrayzone.com/2021/04/08/pentagon-vietnam-military-china-us-war/

Just a few years ago it seemed the Hanoi and Washington were on the cusp of becoming formal allies. The controversy that surrounded Bill Clinton's restoration of diplomatic relations with Vietnam in the 1990's is long past. Though Vietnam still suffers the effects of the US war in terms of Agent Orange and the like, they are clearly a resilient people and have moved on – ready to deal with contemporary realities. The American War now belongs to another generation. The fear today is with regard to the ancient enemy – not the Americans across the ocean but the neighbour across the northern border, China.

Vietnam went through a liberalisation period akin to what we saw in China. During the 1990's they opened up their economy and turned their backs on communism effectively handing their country over to Western capitalist forces. This was done by turning their people into a cheap labour platform for Wall Street and other capitalist power centres. Some in Vietnam flourished and became wealthy even as they betrayed their communist principles by 'cashing in' on the labour and exploitation of those below them.

Vietnam was flooded by Western capital and businesses and by the early 2000's it seemed that in some respects the US had won the war – the long war. They lost in terms of combat but in terms of cultural clash and civilisational contest – the West was the victor.

It has always amazed me that the Vietnamese seemed more than willing to forgive what the US did to their country – the absolute ravaging of the countryside and the uncounted (certainly millions) of deaths. Given what was done it wouldn't have been hard to imagine the nation going down the pathway of a North Korea – that nation's present status is inconceivable apart from what the US did there in the early 1950's.*

This was effectively forgiven as the Vietnamese sought to look forward. The past was the past and the Western model seemed to mark the future.

During the Bush and Obama years the nations grew closer as the threat of China loomed. Though it seemed impossible to imagine the two nations began to discover that in terms of geopolitics they had more in common than previously imagined and certainly common interests.

And yet something has changed just in the past couple of years. The fact that Vietnam has suddenly backed down and pulled away from Washington is a signal that demands examination and reflection.

Yes, we can look at official policy and the fact that Vietnam has declared itself neutral. But the facts on the ground indicate otherwise. Hanoi has been clearly cozying up to Washington for some time and the nations seemed to be on the brink of an alliance – even if somewhat informal.

But now Hanoi is sending clear signals that they do not want to host missile bases, the American navy or US ground troops. What happened?

There could be rival factions at work with the Vietnam's government. This cannot be discounted but the larger truth I think is evident.

Vietnam has lost faith in Washington's power. The Trump era marked a period of instability and revealed the fact that the US itself is fraught with tensions and deep existential problems. The nation is itself becoming unstable and cannot be relied upon in the long term. Biden may insist that the US is 'back', but at this juncture the claim is pretty empty.

As a result, Vietnam's best hope is to seek neutrality and attempt to establish a modus vivendi with its powerful northern neighbour. The US may recover. It may be 'back', but it might not and banking on US support seems a foolish risk. China for its part isn't going anywhere anytime soon and while Vietnam will never trust Beijing, they have to be prepared to live with them. The Americans can pull out of Asia and still be America. But China and Vietnam will remain neighbours regardless.

These events mark one of the fallouts of the Trump era. I do not weep for the decline of the US Empire but I laugh at those who think Trump made America strong or great. This rejection and evident weakening of the American hand is a result of long-term decline – but exacerbated and thus directly connected to Trump's policies.

Edward Klein referred to Obama as 'The Amateur'. Well, Trump was a kindergartner trying to play in the big leagues and the damage continues to reverberate. No matter how hard he tries, Biden will not be able to put it all back together again. Truly it was a 'the emperor has no clothes' moment. If Soviet power was revealed to be 'painted rust', American power was revealed as cheap plastic. Vietnam knows that now and they're acting accordingly.

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*Biden can speak of US resistance to autocrats and contrast US values with states the reject Classical Liberalism. The truth is the US has been happy to ally with such forces when convenient and in other cases it has fostered them. Or in the case of nations like North Korea and various nations in both Africa and Latin America it has created the conditions that led to their rise. Biden's statements are ignorant and hypocritical. The only question I have is this – does he actually believe his own lies or deep down does he know better?