Visa Diplomacy

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/us-considering-adding-cyprus-romania-bulgaria-to-visa-waiver-programm/

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-china/news/taiwan-delegation-irks-china-with-eastern-europe-tour/

This is a case of the United States rewarding faithful countries like Romania, which is fully on board with US foreign policy in Eastern Europe. Romania's inner turmoil and problematic bureaucracy have kept Washington somewhat aloof in terms of visas, but apparently they've found a way to make it work and it will open the door for easy Romanian business and travel in the United States. Washington wants to continue building strong ties with the nation that sits in a pivotal spot on the European map.

As far as Cyprus and Bulgaria, the visa liberalisation is a case of 'wooing' – trying to encourage these nations who are at risk of tilting toward Moscow to remain firmly in the Western orbit. They're EU members but increasingly the EU is looking weak and fragmented at least in terms of what kind of authority Brussels is able to exercise.

Bulgaria is in a geopolitical tug-of-war between Russian, Turkish, EU, and American interests and the nation also sits in a critical geopolitical position vis-à-vis the Black Sea – once again touching on issues related to Russia, and Turkey.

Cyprus has been a haven for Russian investment, tourism and banking. It's been quite controversial at times and is viewed as financial haven for hiding money, establishing shell and holding companies and the like. For some within the EU, Cyprus has become something of a Trojan Horse within Europe and they would like to clampdown and reform its political system.

But it's not so easy as the nation is divided and the politics are fragile. The whole North Cyprus situation just adds a layer of difficulty in terms of relations with Turkey. Any big move in Cyprus will elicit responses from both Ankara and Moscow. Before independence in 1960, the island had been under control of the British Empire, and the UK still retains bases there – adding yet another layer of complication, all the more as the UK left the European Union in 2020.

Cyprus joined the union in 2004, which remains something of a puzzle given the island's instability. It was a political risk but one deemed necessary to counter the possibility of Russian and Turkish interests. Whether this strategy has succeeded or not is debatable and given the level of Russian investment (and thus influence) on the island, many would say the policy has failed. Since the 2012 financial crisis on the island, Brussels has attempted to reform its banking sector. The jury is still out.

Cyprus is also caught up in the Mediterranean energy dispute between the Libyan factions, Greece, Egypt, and Turkey – and on the periphery, Israel. Everyone is after a piece of the pie. The US has been involved but this diplomatic move is simply an attempt to open more doors of possibility when it comes to the island. They want to woo businessman and the island's elite to the US where they can be wined and dined, and plugged into the possibility of deeper American investment.

Israel's relationship with the US is solid but there have been limitations and restrictions on visas due to the fact that Israel's population is mixed. Arab-Palestinians make up over 20% of the population. This is not referring to the population of the West Bank, this is within Israel proper. Without an easy means to differentiate between Jewish and Arab travelers, the US has been unwilling to allow free unfettered travel. I don't know the details but I'm guessing there will be some kind of internal vetting on the part of the Israeli state. Those who meet the agreed upon criteria will be able to travel and benefit from the visa programme. Whether the practical result is that Arab citizens of Israel won't meet the criteria is something yet to be seen and I doubt the data will not be made public.

And in light of the other linked story, one can expect that Lithuania, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia will also be rewarded. The US wants to build a pro-Taiwan bloc and countries that are willing to defy Beijing on this point will be recognised.

These are small stories in the grand scheme of things but interesting as they reveal something of the mosaic, the complex machinery that is international relations and it shows how nations interact with each other attempting to reward, incentivise, and in other cases punish.