01 January 2022

Cruz and Nordstream 2

https://news.yahoo.com/cruz-offers-swap-nord-stream-181728222.html

No one can seriously accuse the Democrats of being soft on Russia. If anything they've led the militaristic charge against Moscow since the late Obama administration. In 2014, the US backed a coup in Ukraine leading to the Russian annexation of the Crimea and Putin's open support for separatists in the Donbass – the already rocky relationship quickly soured. And when Russia intervened in the US proxy war in Syria, and thwarted plans to oust Assad, relations grew hostile.


The US has largely opposed the Nordstream 2 project which brings Russian oil across the Baltic Sea into northern Germany. While the Republicans softened their once aggressive anti-Russia rhetoric during the Trump administration, under Biden it has been renewed.*

After sanctions and threats of sanctions, the Biden administration backed down and is letting Germany pursue its own energy policy – one that includes the Nordstream project. The US had hoped that Europe would buy US liquefied natural gas (LNG) which would be shipped across the Atlantic and reprocessed in Europe in order to serve homes. It would involve a significant investment in terms of infrastructure – the ports to offload the material and facilities for the conversion.

Apart from a couple of countries (like Croatia and Poland), Europe wasn't interested and the US energy sector seethed with frustration. Since the Trump administration, Europe has taken a more deliberate and independent stand in terms of its own interests. Atlanticism isn't defunct but it has been reduced and while the US may wish to push for war with Moscow, the nations of Europe know that they will suffer the effects of any conflict. Like it or not they have to live with Russia and find a way to get along. While they are unhappy with Moscow's policies on certain points, they also know that the force and cause of agitation in the Eurasian theatre is the United States – which more or less controls the agenda of NATO.

Republican senator Ted Cruz has feigned outrage over the seeming foreign policy defeat. He attacks Biden for his weakness and capitulation even though Cruz was more or less silent during the Trump period. Cruz's anger is manufactured, the product of the interests which back him. He is not representing the American people, the agenda of the Republicans or the Trumpite faction. In this case he represents the energy sector of Wall Street and its frustration of being shut out of the substantial European market. American power once held enough sway that such a deal would have been pushed through and forced on the European public. But in 2021, that's no longer the case and while Biden may be painted as weak he's desperately trying to repair the raw and open wounds left by four years of Donald Trump. Atlanticism (which is predicated upon US leadership) is on its knees. The US can't simply flip a switch and restore its former status. It will have to be worked at and so in the grand scheme of things the Biden State Department and White House have reckoned the Nordstream 2 is not worth alienating key European allies.

While some might believe this is part of some kind of 'Green' conspiracy to countermand the US fossil fuel industry and the impact of trans-Atlantic shipping, the truth is natural gas is relatively clean and represents a step away from coal – a kind of bridge to the new kinds of renewable energy sources that politicians like Biden want to promote. In other words Biden is not hostile to the US gas industry. In fact it's likely he would have preferred the LNG scheme but in the grand scheme of things it wasn't worth it.

The reason for Biden's acquiescence was pure geopolitics. It was an unhappy choice I'm sure, but one that had to be made. Once again (as in Afghanistan) the irony is this – the Trump administration amplified already existing problems, in some cases creating disasters. For Biden there's no easy fix. It's a case of damage control but it makes him look weak and his enemies are keen to exploit this.

Cruz for his part is simply advocating the part of the energy sector and engaged in parliamentary grandstanding. It's a stunt but one in which he hopes to elevate his profile which suffered some harm in the 2016 campaign when he opposed Trump a little longer than was politically correct within Right-wing circles. He's campaigning and doing little else. His claims of concern regarding European security are not to be taken seriously. Others express such notions genuinely and are concerned over potential Russian leverage over Europe.

But despite whatever he might say, that's not what Cruz is about. His rhetoric and record indicate that his interests lie within the spectrum of Right-wing politics. He is not a geopolitical thinker or strategist and given his track record with regard to mendacity, there's no reason to believe much of anything he says. His moves are made vis-à-vis domestic politics. His tactics are aimed at the Democratic Party and the Biden administration and his grand strategy is to attain higher office.

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* The reasons for the GOP vacillation are diverse. While Trump was painted as a crony of Vladimir Putin the reality is the Trump team (as it were) was in general part of a faction that sees Russia and other anti-liberals (such as Hungary's Orban, Italy's Salvini and Poland's PiS) as allies in the ongoing culture war and 'Clash of Civilisations' vis-à-vis Secular Humanism, China and the Islamic world. There are plenty within the Republican fold that don't quite subscribe to this foreign policy approach and yet the pressure of Trumpite politics and the party's inner policing led them to stay silent. Now that Biden is in office, they will happily revert to traditional post-Cold War Anti-Russia rhetoric and the kind of militarism once championed by John McCain. Cruz, it would seem wants to take up that mantle.

See also:

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2021/10/sensationalism-and-geopolitics-of.html

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