South Korea: A Satrapy Adrift

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3161488/south-korea-doesnt-need-pick-between-us-china-says-presidential

From the moment he was elected in 2017, the US has not been happy with South Korean president Moon Jae-in. A member of the Korean Left and insufficiently militant, he represents the political heritage in South Korea that has been resistant to US domination – the same faction which began to openly rebel from US control in the late 1980's. In South Korea and the rest of the world, this period marks South Korea's embrace of democracy and the setting aside of US-sponsored authoritarian rule.

Park Chung-hee, a close ally of the United States (who ruled South Korea from 1961-1979) was one of the seminal figures in this authoritarian structure. Assassinated in 1979, the nation went through a period of turmoil and bloodshed – the events are still controversial to this day. Park's daughter Park Geun-hye came to power in 2013, and yet her administration became mired in scandal. Her fall from power and the subsequent implosion of South Korea's conservative Saenuri party left the US little choice but to embrace Moon Jae-in. As of 2017, it was clear the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) was once again ascendant. Had a Democratic administration been in power in the United States its likely things would have remained more cordial but historically the Republicans have not gotten along very well with members of the DPK.

For Moon, the US president he had to deal with was Donald Trump who at first created a dangerous situation, escalating the tensions with North Korea and threatening Pyongyang and Kim Jong-un personally. While the 'fire and fury' and 'Little Rocketman' headlines splashed across the screen on FOX to the delight of the Trumpite base, for South Koreans the prospect of war is no light matter. But then Trump switched gears and attempted to engage in diplomacy, or perhaps (it could be argued) that his bluster was part of his diplomatic strategy, if strategy it can be called.

The Trump attempt at diplomacy and statecraft was in the end the debacle many feared it would be. At first it seemed like a vindication of the Sunshine Policy as represented by Moon but in the end it was a disaster and Moon lost both credibility and face. His poll numbers soared in 2018 as he achieved rapprochement with North Korea and he stood poised to bridge the gap between Washington and Pyongyang. But after the failure of the 2018 Singapore and 2019 Hanoi summits, his poll numbers were in freefall.

Thanks to Trump's maneuvers, North Korea gained considerable status on the international stage. The US looked foolish and while Moon's efforts were appreciated domestically, the negotiations (for all their fanfare) accomplished little to nothing and he undoubtedly leaves office a bitter and frustrated man. In terms of domestic politics, his party has scored well and is now dominant, but his goals were hindered and in many respects he lost face because of Trump.

And for the Seoul Establishment, there was a significant drop in confidence with regard to the United States. The reckless language of Trump put South Korea in potential danger.

But now Moon Jae-in is ready to depart the scene, and DPK candidate Lee Jae-myung stands poised to replace him. With the election just two months away, Lee (who leads in most polls) is speaking of US-China relations in terms that are likely to make Washington squirm. While not denying or repudiating the US alliance – an alliance in which the US maintains effective military control and the power to override the South Korean state, he nevertheless indicates that he wants to seek partnership with China. His call for nuclear submarines signals a desire for the South Korean military to be afforded a greater deal of autonomy – for South Korea to become a regional power in its own right. The deal would be lucrative for the US military-industrial complex (a savvy move on Lee's part) but in terms of US geostrategic planning it signals that South Korea under Lee would take a further step away from the US sphere.

Once again the Make America Great Again (MAGA) crowd understands little about the wider world and the US role in it. Trump has weakened the US hand and the events of 6 January 2021 have led not a few US allies to question the viability of US leadership and stability. A recent report suggests Canada is seriously looking at the possibility of the US falling under Right-wing dictatorship at some point in the near future. Nations are making plans independent of the United States. Biden's administration is paralysed. He's trying to re-establish US hegemony but the domestic situation is such that he's limited and once again the US appears weak and fragmented.

And the 2024 presidential election scenario doesn't look good. In fact unless things change there's a real possibility of Trump returning to power. If the Establishment moves against him and blocks him by some means, the US faces domestic turmoil. It's a lose-lose situation and the prospect of further US instability and domestic turmoil seem high if inevitable. Even the response to Covid demonstrates the collapse of US consensus and the ability to lead and manage its own affairs. The world is watching and while the US (which seemed insurmountable in 2001) is quickly fragmenting – nations like China appear stable and ascendant. And like it or not, US allies in the Asia-Pacific are going to have to live with China. Beijing is not going away.

US control over South Korea has by no means ended but its waning and depending on South Korea politics and the US domestic situation over the next couple of years – the relationship is likely to be transformed and South Korea stands poised to move out from under US control. The rebellion will be political and bureaucratic. Those that want to see this will want it to be done quietly as they won't want to burn the bridges with Washington but it's clear the US is not going to 'have its way' with South Korea unless the Right reasserts control – and quickly. There are many other factors – the situation with Japan for instance which will also play a role. But the region is changing and the order established by the US Empire in 1945 is in danger of collapse. The destructive fires were smoldering and Donald Trump did little more than pour fuel on them and fan the flames.