A Ukraine Miscellany (IV): GOP Traps, MiG's, and Russian Oil

Putin fell for a geopolitical trap in the invasion of Ukraine, and US president Joe Biden has fallen for a series of traps set by his domestic political opposition. 

 

First, there's the MiG angle addressed in Miscellany III. The US finally got Poland to acquiesce and send MiG fighters to Ukraine. The problem is how to get them there. If they take off from Polish airspace with Polish pilots then they're potential targets – NATO aircraft entering the battle zone, representing an escalation.

Would Putin take them out? He could, but that would mean a direct war with NATO – and potentially World War III.

Poland decided to sidestep the issue by flying the jets to the west and handing them over into US custody on German soil. Then it would be an American (and German) problem. But the issue is the same. How to get them to Ukraine?

It would seem the solution is to bring Ukrainian pilots and have them fly them back. The fact that they (as weapons) originated in NATO airspace is in principle a line that has already been crossed. NATO has already been openly and aggressively funneling weapons across the Ukrainian border. In theory Russia could hit those convoys as they are weapons meant to kill his troops, blow up his tanks, and shoot down his aircraft. What's the difference?

There's been a kind of strange silence about the status of Ukrainian airfields. Are they operational or are the rumours true and Ukrainian aircraft are already operating from across the NATO frontier?

The GOP has been making hay over the logistical delays, once again trying to present Biden as feckless and arguing that he 'dropped the ball'. It's pure opportunism on their part – and of the most cynical type. Biden isn't going to receive any sympathy or support from me but if I were a flag-waving patriot I would consider GOP conduct not only duplicitous but anti-American.

Then there's the issue of Russian oil. Biden didn't want to stop importing it because of the skyrocketing gasoline prices. The ban on Russian oil was certain to make the price of petrol (and diesel) go up and it certainly did when the announcement was made. It's not that these stations had suddenly used up all their gasoline. They just raised the price because they could. They would counter this argument by saying that they have to base their prices on the projected price of the next delivery to make sure the money they bring in can cover it. Maybe. Or maybe they just raise the price at the earliest opportunity. Once again, when the prices drop they certainly don't lower their prices immediately or even in the short term. They are businesses and thus motivated by profit. Everyone understands that, but is it right to exploit people's pain – to raise the price a couple of times over the course of the day simply because you can? It's a clear demonstration of the market's cruel immorality and usurious nature.

But the increased gas prices are a boon for the Republicans. They want to see the US economy scream and while they shed crocodile tears for the middle class they want the inflation to continue rising. It's an election year and a public in pain will mean a public that will go to the polls and vote against the sitting administration. That's their hope – to recapture both houses of the congress. Once again it's worth asking – how is this patriotic as opposed to self-serving? In their minds they are the only true Americans and what's good for them (and their financial backers) is what's good for America. They call themselves patriots. Others would call them whores.

As far as Biden attempting to purchase oil from Iran and Venezuela, the GOP line is that he's so desperate to avoid expanding the domestic oil industry that he's willing to do business with America's enemies.

That's the other GOP angle to this media campaign which has also been picked up by Evangelical 'news' outlets. Their campaign is relentless. They're forcing Biden's hand to re-initiate the pipeline projects and open up the US for more drilling. Energy independence is the mantra of the hour. Once again, it wasn't that many years ago that US foreign policy planners didn't really want it because they wanted a justification for international entanglements and interventions. The new Trumpian approach of the GOP is different. No justification is needed for imperial power to be wielded. No economic and diplomatic partnerships are required. Brute force and threat are sufficient. And that's part of the reason the US Empire is scrambling at present – so much political capital was lost during the Trump years and so much ill will was generated.

As I've said before a mafia don can inspire fear and respect – but he still has to take care of his people. If he doesn't and rules by sheer terror, then someone will eventually work up enough courage to stand against him and once the first person makes a move – the whole empire can collapse quickly.

Biden certainly wants to see the electrification of the American auto industry which is happening whether or not the GOP wants to acknowledge it – the new Ford F-150 represents a watershed moment. For the record I loathe all the new vehicles especially with all their touch-screen technology – which every electric vehicle is certain to possess.

For their part, these GOP agents are the spokesmen and activist arms of the oil industry which largely owns their party – and sadly this influence extends deeply into the Christian Right and under its corrupt leadership the agenda of Wall Street and Big Oil are re-packaged and theologized.

These forces want to break Biden's electrification plan and thus they're doing all they can to ridicule it and set it back a few years. A lot of money can be made in the interim.

For his part Biden doesn't want to cave to the GOP – as it will also generate some grief within his own party. But actually the rapprochement with Venezuela and Iran demonstrates a degree of savvy on his part or the part of his team. These nations are isolated and with Russia facing economic ruin, Putin is going to be seeking to forge stronger ties with them. If they have freshly inked oil contracts with Washington, that's going to motivate them to keep Putin at arm's length. Maduro seeks normalisation and an end to the sanctions the US imposed on his country in 2019. The US has repeatedly tried to overthrow him but these efforts have failed and so rather than have another Cuba-like multi-generational thorn-in-the-side, Biden is trying a different tact. Economic inroads allow for other inroads – and opportunities for US power players to re-configure their project to take Maduro down.

And Iran certainly wants a new nuclear deal. Oil diplomacy is one way to get these doors open.

Whether it's the best way to deal with these issues or not is of no consequence to me. As a Christian I am apolitical with regard to US foreign and energy policies – but desirous of peace. But again, the GOP attack line strikes me as disingenuous and politically motivated – which for all their flag waving is hardly a patriotic stance.

And with regard to Ukraine – if Putin will call off the invasion on the basis of retaining Crimea, the Donbass, and permanent Ukrainian neutrality, then Zelenskiy should take the deal. End the war. But again, the US doesn't actually want the war to end. The longer it persists, the more their goals vis-à-vis Europe, NATO, Ukraine, and especially Russia are likely to be met. Zelenskiy's Churchill-ian antics in the British Parliament were certainly met with applause – not because anyone was impressed by his boastful claims and bombast but because it means the war will continue.