All Eyes on Italy and Other Pressures Mounting in Europe

On the one hand the manipulations that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have proven very successful. NATO dissent has been largely quashed and the EU has been brought into a kind of subservience to the US. NATO is set to expand, and the US has forced Europe to shift its energy policy, in ways largely favourable to US interests.

On the other hand there are cracks. Brexit which would have been welcomed in the 1990's has proven to be something of a disaster for US interests. Europeans powers such as Germany and France are using these latest episodes as a means to push their own interests – which in some respects are contrary to both EU and US long term goals.

More than ever there's pressure being put on the dissenting elements within the Balkans. Serbia in particular is being targeted to the extent that Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov isn't even allowed to travel there. Flights to Russia are harassed by NATO fighter aircraft and increasingly the Vucic government is threatened with sanctions, divestment, and blackmail. As such Belgrade continues to turn toward Moscow and increasingly toward Beijing for aid – all the more outraging the EU and Atlanticist Establishments. It's driving Serbia away from Europe and such tactics are being watched by the wider European political spectrum.

As such even while there is tremendous pressure for all European political parties to get on board with the new NATO/Anti-Russia campaign, there are voices of dissent – and they're growing.

Hungary's Viktor Orban holds enough leverage to gum up the works and so concessions had to be made to him with regard to the Russian gas upon which his nation depends. A landlocked country, Hungary is not going to be able to rely on Liquefied Natural Gas brought in by ship – and the logistics of bringing it up the Danube are not without problems though it is being discussed.

Orban has forged closer ties with the American Right. Championed by Tucker Carlson of FOX, he has become the darling of the Christian-Right who continue to look to his authoritarian democracy as a possible model for their own retention of power in the United States. The truth is that Orban is popular and Hungary is a small and fairly homogeneous country. It's not a likely model for a nation the size and scope of the United States. Nevertheless he's quite popular with the Right – while the American Left is wary of him. Being part of the Visegrad Four (V4), Hungary has enjoyed a good relationship with Washington – with the State Department, Pentagon, and the like and yet the potency and unity of the V4 (which was always tenuous to a certain extent) seems to be weakening as Poland (while still at odds with Brussels) is moving in a more deliberate pro-NATO posture. As such Brussels is looking past some of their differences, no doubt to wrest Warsaw away from the Orban bloc.

While nations like Slovakia, Austria, Germany, Spain, and even France are dealing with surging Right-wing parties – the real news is from Italy.

A few years ago Salvini's League was the party on the rise and Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini wielded a great deal of power. And his connections to the Right and even Neo-Fascism are indisputable. And yet Salvini's 2019 bid for power failed and in subsequent years Italy has been torn apart and its political structure is broken.

The rise of the League and the Five Star Movement (M5S) has played a part in this and it was Five Star that proved the catalyst in breaking apart the technocrat led unity government. In many respects for M5S to be part of an Establishment-led unity government was antithetical to its identity and agenda and the party hopes to regain its voice from the standpoint of being in opposition. And yet its machinations helped bring the government down and Italy will see a snap election in late September. And this is what everyone is talking about.

During this period the Georgia Meloni led Brothers of Italy (Fdl) has come to the fore. Fdl is the successor of the National Alliance and the Italian Social Movement (MSI) – the post-war fascist party that sought to perpetuate the ideology of Mussolini. While Salvini has loose and tangential affiliations to European fascism, the Meloni led Fdl has direct links and deep roots.

The Fdl is part of the Centre-Right Coalition which includes the League and Berlusconi's Forza Italia. And yet Meloni's Fdl is riding the popularity wave – no doubt in part for its opposition stance during the Draghi led unity government which began in February 2021 and is now effectively defunct. Meloni is perfectly positioned as her party stands to make significant gains in the September snap election and many believe she will be the next prime minister of Italy. At present they are almost dominating the polls. Frustration with Establishment politics, along with the charismatic appeal of Meloni is proving to be the winning formula. With the Right-wing coalition in tow, her party stands to have the majority and while Salvini wants desperately to be prime minister, his case will be weak and the cards will be in Meloni's hands.

You can be sure the Five Star Movement is lamenting its participation in the unity government as they watch how Meloni's Fdl has garnered all the benefits of being in the opposition.

It's amazing to watch how these Right-wing movements have learned to use attractive women to promote their causes. And yet they always seem to have a strange masculine edge to them – dolled up, but somehow less than feminine and (from a traditionalist perspective) strangely unattractive. Conservatives have been traditionally anti-feminist but as these parties have shifted more to the Right and focused less on traditionalist values this has opened the door.

There's also been a kind of triangulation strategy at work in Right-wing parties across the West. We see it in America and in particular with the Christian-Right. They defeat feminism by embracing it and appropriating its narratives. We've seen this prominently in the abortion debates in the United States. And yet it also involves a great deal of revisionism, deceit, and significant shifts in ideology.

While the American Christian Right champions Salvini and Meloni – who was a speaker at the 2022 CPAC conference in Orlando, the European Establishment is alarmed. In addition to anti-liberal policies and nationalism that fuels Euroscepticism, there is a fear of pro-Russian stances as many within the European Right view Putin as an ally against Western liberalism and its embrace of sodomy, so-called 'woke-ism', cancel culture and the like. A far-right prime minister in Italy (along with Orban) will have the power to thwart EU policy vis-à-vis Russia. This has people in Brussels worried and even the American Right will split over this point. Again, were this the 1990's, it would be celebrated as the EU is viewed as a rival to US power. But at present with the Anti-Russian campaign in full swing, all the imperialist elements in Washington want Europe on board and so in that sense a Meloni premiership could be a potential disaster. To thicken the fog of uncertainty, while Meloni's allies are pro-Putin, she has been more careful in her public declarations and having forged ties with the US and in particular the Trumpite movement, she has paid a certain degree of lip service to US leadership.

The European Far Right has much in common with the American Right and yet they're not necessarily pro-NATO and they're definitely anti-EU. Generally speaking they're against institutions that control, limit, or subsume their national sovereignty. Meloni is no exception but she has skillfully danced around these issues. And yet as prime minister she'll have to start setting policy and making stands and she's going to upset people either within her political alliance, within Europe, or in the Americas – and perhaps all at once.

So in other words there's a potential mess on the table and it will be interesting to see what happens over the next two months. Meloni and the Fdl are atop the polls but there will be powerful elements moving from multiple angles that will want to see her thwarted and the Fdl knocked down a peg. There will be backroom deals to be sure which is nothing new in Italy's turbulent political history. This is going to shake things up to be sure and many of us will be watching very closely.