Ethiopia's Foray into Somaliland

Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed has generated a great deal of frustration within Washington. He waged war on Tigray and the ethno-political faction long supported by Washington. He has by some estimations moved Ethiopia closer to China. And as of 1 January 2024, Addis Ababa has now moved into the sphere of BRICS.

And if all this wasn't enough, there is now an additional risk of promoting instability in neighbouring Somalia. The latter nation appears coherent on the map but the country has not existed as a cohesive unit for several decades. The US relationship with Ethiopia and Somalia is long, complex, and shameful. During the Cold War and the decades after, the US flipped back and forth – supporting Ethiopia, then turning against it, then supporting it again. In each case the relationship with Somalia was directly affected, always falling on the opposite pole. With the collapse of the Ethiopian Derg in 1991, the region was in a state of chaos and the US decided to intervene in neighbouring Somalia leading to the famous 'Black Hawk Down' incident.

Since then the US has supported factions, waged war directly and indirectly and by means of proxy – with both Kenya and Ethiopia invading Somalia with US support in the 2000's and 2010's.

These interventions led to the rise al-Shabaab and its eventual affiliation with al Qaeda.  The US ousted an Islamist government in Mogadishu and then later backed them and yet the US-supported 'official' government does not control the whole country and this is especially the case in the northern region known as Somaliland.

Now Ethiopia's Ahmed has forged a deal with the Somaliland separatists to create a port, a move that has outraged the official Mogadishu government and its American backers. Ethiopia for its part was opposed by the United States in the 1980's and weakened by sanctions and famine. Eritrea won its independence in 1991 and the US was keen to acknowledge this – the new reality leaving Ethiopia landlocked. Since that time Ethiopia has been trying to find an outlet to the sea but its options are limited.

The US later made peace with Ethiopia and the two nations became allies even while relations with Eritrea (often compared to North Korea) have been strained.

Abiy Ahmed has been trying to bolster Ethiopia's profile and regional standing and as stated, they have been desperate for a port. Somaliland is looking to bolster its claims of independence vis-à-vis Mogadishu and thus is willing to cut a deal with Ethiopia for its backing. Ethiopia would presumably defend its interests and thus for Mogadishu to assert control over Somaliland – there would be a good chance of war with Addis Ababa.

Mogadishu is furious but limited in what it can do. All eyes are looking at the African Union but ultimately to the United States who will make the final decision as to how to respond.

Given the instability in nearby Sudan and the growing tensions around the Horn, and the scramble for allies in the region – with both Russia and China seeking a foothold, you can be sure there are some intense discussions taking place in the National Security Council, State Department, Pentagon, and CIA. In fact there are reports that the head of the CIA was recently in Somalia and Kenya, indicating the level of concern within Washington over events in the Horn.

This part of the world is largely ignored by the media and the public – apart from the problems associated with the shipping lanes. A few years back it was Somali pirates, now it's the Houthis responding to the Gaza War. The region is complicated and most people can't make sense of it and have never attempted to follow it. And yet, it's a critical part of the larger geopolitical puzzle which seems to be getting ever more unstable and volatile.

Abiy Ahmed can be excused for his defiance of the United States and his desire to see his country flourish – and yet at what cost? Oppression? War? Regardless of his motives and ethics, his moves are generating instability. I hope he's counting the cost because at the end of the day he must have some notion as to how ruthless and rapacious the US can be – and how little it regards the lives of the people living in the Horn of Africa. The past fifty years have made that all too clear.