The Lingering Strength of the American Empire

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/30/americas-undying-empire-why-the-decline-of-us-power-has-been-greatly-exaggerated

This piece raised several significant points concerning the resilience and remaining fortitude of the American Empire. Everyone would agree US prestige has dropped in recent years – though no one can agree as to when this process began or even exactly why. It all makes for an interesting discussion and the entire question is (to a degree) in flux due to the pending 2024 electoral contest. Its result will move the needle – more than some will acknowledge and yet less than others fear.

The author rightly pointed out that in many respects the problem with Trump was more a question of style as opposed to substance. The bureaucracies continued to function and his functional abdication of executive leadership and oversight allowed these agencies to quietly press on, as it were. The wheels of empire (in many spheres at least) continued to turn.

But it's complicated. Things were derailed at critical points and a great deal of damage was done – especially with regard to American power overseas. The article failed in some respects to address political developments in Europe, several of which signalled a move toward independence, nor did the article properly address the rather live question concerning the status of NATO and what a US 'pull back' would mean. The US might drop out or it may simply cut back funds and take a less assertive role in leadership. What would happen then? It's all speculation of course but these questions are being asked and are certainly being discussed in the circles of power. Whether the shift under a new Trump administration is minor or major – it will change things. It's clear his comments are generating a great deal of concern in both Washington and in European capitals.

I think the greatest shortfall was the failure to raise rather pressing questions concerning how American leaders might deal with the Empire's collapse. Will they simply adopt a damage control and strategic retreat strategy as various nations or blocs challenge the US economically and geopolitically – confrontations that in some cases the US will not be able to assert itself or 'win' the day? Or will the US lash out?

The question is always complicated by the fact that the US won't openly acknowledge the existence of its empire and though it is historically unparalleled, most of the American public is unaware of it and rejects the very notion of its existence. It's a paradigm quite at odds with say the overt moral casting of the British Empire. As absurd as that may seem, the British believed it and not a few still do. One has to wonder if their tea is not laced with opium.

The Cuban Missile Crisis is alluded to, an episode that many still do not understand. Was it God's mercy that Kennedy was in power – a man who rejected and obstructed the militarists in the Pentagon and in other quarters of power? Or, would a man with more standing like Eisenhower, Johnson, or Nixon have been able to handle the situation more effectively? It's hard to say, but the common narratives must be rejected – ones that suggest it escalated to that point because of Kennedy's weakness and the like. These self-serving Right-wing framings fail to take the larger context into account and (as is so often the case) paint everything Castro or the Soviets did as naked aggression when that simply is not the case. The notion that the US held firm and the Soviets 'blinked' is also misleading – a misunderstanding of the context and the steps toward its resolution.

The point in this line of discussion is to raise the real possibility of the American Empire reacting to its decline with extreme violence. We saw the US was willing to initiate global war and upheaval in order to pursue the goals of the Project for a New American Century (PNAC) – an agenda which in many ways was (and is) still being pursued by subsequent presidents such as Obama and Biden – and to a lesser degree Trump.

So what will happen if the US faces serious challenges to the hegemony of the dollar, its geopolitical and military standing in East Asia, or Europe resisting its control?

The Empire is still there, as the essay suggests, but its presence should not presume soundness. The Ottoman decline lasted over two-hundred years. And yet the nature of American power is such that it seems reasonable to argue that it will either stand or fall. It's hard to imagine scenarios of long decline. What would the fall look like? That's another fascinating subject of debate but one ultimately frustrating. I think we're seeing hints of it in connection with the rise and growing defiance of individual states in the union – a rekindling of states' rights and semi-autonomy. This began under Covid when Trump functionally abdicated his federal role but now what was autonomy is becoming a more determined resistance under Biden or in other cases (such as Colorado) resistance to even the potential of a Trump presidency.

There are constitutional crises brewing and eventually one of them will become serious enough as to be of historic consequence. How soon will this happen? We'll see! It could take place within the year.