The Wooing of Armenia

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-launch-new-e270-million-plan-bring-armenia-fold-russia/

Since the article's publication in April, there have been numerous reports regarding Armenia. The situation remains dynamic with Yerevan reaching out to Ukraine and thus angering Russia in the process. There are real fears in Moscow of Armenia rescinding its membership with the Russian-led CSTO security agreement and flipping over to the NATO column - not in full membership but as one of its allies. This also generates concerns over the brewing instability of its neighbour Georgia. For Putin, the invasion of Ukraine was meant to arrest Atlanticist expansion, but with the accession of Sweden and Finland into NATO, and now the growing risk of all of Transcaucasia falling under the aegis of the American-led bloc, there's no small degree of consternation. And the EU is also looking to expand.

While Yerevan is a long way from EU membership (let alone Schengen rights or the Eurozone), the fact that American troops are planning to be on the ground in country is certain to alarm Moscow. It's all a sign of Armenia pivoting in the direction of the Atlantic Bloc. Once they're in, it will be difficult to rectify the situation. Russia was able to reverse some US gains in Central Asia after 9/11, but this is on Europe's back doorstep - a slightly more delicate situation. And even the situation in Central Asia remains dynamic. The Americans have faded into the background but the EU is making its move.

As the article suggests the delicate aspect to these negotiations is the fact that they upset Azerbaijan - another critical energy ally of the EU, and a strategic ally to both the US and Israel. If these diplomatic efforts can keep both Baku and Yerevan away from each other's throats, there's a chance for success. Moscow would like to see this fail and I think it could be argued Ankara is not overly thrilled about it either. And yet this too is a bit touchy as Armenia and the Armenians have been the source of one of the major historical disputes between Russia and the Turks. And Erdogan has his own domestic headaches and it's uncertain as to whether or not he would wish to wade into such a conflict - if he's even capable of doing much at this point.

One thing is certain - if the Ukraine conflict ends, Moscow will turn its full attention to this situation. The Americans and their European allies don't want the war in Ukraine to end. It serves many purposes, some visible and others less so.