I more or less dispensed with these 'miscellany' posts in the summer of 2023 due to the ongoing stalemate. There wasn't much to say.
The big events or developments since then are the August 2024 Kursk Offensive in which Ukraine tried to flip the narrative and invade Russian territory. After some initial and yet modest gains the situation turned into another stalemate and now as 2024 comes to a close, they are rapidly losing this captured territory to Moscow.
And just in the past few weeks Moscow has introduced North Korean troops into the order of battle which the US used as a justification to allow Ukraine to use longer range missiles (such as ATACM's) which can strike deep into Russian territory. Britain and France support this - Germany is holding back for now.
Putin has modified Russia's nuclear doctrine but this is proving no deterrent. And to follow up Moscow launched an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) at the city of Dnipro on 21 November - without any warheads. This type of missile was banned by the INF Treaty which the US tore up in 2019 - mainly so that it could supply such weapons to Taiwan. Washington of course insisted the Russians were violating the treaty when it would seem that it was in fact the Pentagon that was in violation and already developing and intermediate-range programme.
Moscow is sending a warning signal but it will not be heeded and as such more voices are now announcing the commencement of the Third World War. The presence of Korean troops, Iran's alliance with Moscow and the multi-front war in the Middle East give this claim some plausibility. As stated in another article, if such a war develops, historians will look back to these earlier chapters as precursors, the opening salvos much in the same way we today look back at the Spanish Civil War and the Japanese invasions of China in 1931 and 1937.
Biden is now in his Lame Duck period - he's still president but the new administration is transitioning in and prepared to take over in late January. Biden still has executive power but his legislative ability is basically at an end.
It would seem that his intention is to intensify the battlefield and in addition to a green light on landmines (and a lot of deceptive rhetoric in connection to this move), this escalation includes a greater US presence in connection with these missile systems. These 'contractors' will be there to service the missile systems and train the Ukrainians - and help targeting I'm sure. They're 'far from the battlefield' says the Biden administration but in reality these missile batteries will be targeted and these American's are in harm's way.
Russia is bound to escalate and it is very possible that Americans will be killed. The official narrative is that Biden is trying to strengthen Kyiv's hand for the negotiations that Trump will demand. Or it could be that he's trying to escalate the war and intensify it, creating a situation that Trump cannot easily bring to an end, a situation in which he will feel enormous pressure to 'save face' and back Ukraine?
Putin once again played into their hands by launching the IRBM at Dnipro. He provided a justification for yet further NATO escalation. Let us hope there's some restraint and that the war can actually end in 2025. Zelenskiy will likely be done for, but depending on the fallout in Ukrainian politics, the situation might remain tense - especially if they keep pushing for NATO membership.
Biden did much to undo the damage Trump wrought in terms of Atlanticism. And yet the US continues to fall short in its goals. From Afghanistan to Iraq, Syria to Ukraine - the Empire seems able to tear things apart but it can't bring things to a resolution. Tactical victories do not translate into the meeting of strategic goals and this combined with the re-election of Trump signal that for all of Biden's efforts, he too has failed. I don't lament this but it needs to be understood, and as with Trump - the shifts in policy will weaken the US Empire, and the instability may spiral out of control. That's always the danger with someone like him.
Are we entering the endgame for the Ukrainian War? Let's hope so.
See also:
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2023/06/a-ukraine-miscellany-xviii-new-phase-in.html
https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2023/08/a-ukraine-miscellany-xix-stalemate.html
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