A Ukraine Miscellany XIX: Stalemate

When this subject was last addressed at the beginning of June, the spring offensive was just getting under way. Two months later it has fizzled and even Western media seems incapable of spinning the story.

The Russians have turned to an attrition strategy likely with the hope of launching an offensive of their own at some later date. Otherwise at this point the Kremlin seems to have no real strategy or endgame in view. The invasion has failed and all that's left that would enable Putin to save face is to retain the eastern holdings that connect the Donbass to Crimea.

Ukraine for its part is clearly in trouble as two recent scandals surrounding recruiting demonstrate. On the one hand the military has turned to press gang tactics – literally grabbing men off the street and forcing them into the military. And where official methods still prevail there is widespread corruption so severe that Zelenskiy has pushed through a major overhaul and has decided to reform the entire apparatus, sacking many along the way. Apparently the recruiters were taking bribes and payoffs in order to grant exemptions and in their avarice garnered some unwanted attention. When covered by outlets like the BBC, the focus is on the corruption. The fact that there are so many Ukrainians not wanting to fight is a question not pursued. Some might be pacifists and others mere cowards – or perhaps just men who see the futility of it all and are unwilling to throw away their lives. But the one thing Western media doesn't want to hear is that significant sectors of the Ukrainian public aren't buying into the war narrative.

Some might argue the offensive has stalled as many tanks are yet to be delivered and the promised American F-16's are not yet in play. Others believe that for all the hype surrounding these weapons platforms, they are unlikely to turn the tide. Again, the invasion has been halted, a victory of sorts and a humiliation for Putin's military – which obviously is facing its own trials and internal dissensions. Though it must be said, the whole Wagner mutiny affair is still rather cryptic to me and I am not satisfied with the explanations – let alone the absurdities being floated by some Western officials. It was and remains a strange chapter in the war, with too many unresolved questions to afford a proper explanation.

Russia's aims have been foiled but the prospect of Ukraine recapturing not only the eastern territories lost in 2022, but the Donbass and Crimea (lost in 2014) seems distant and unlikely.

A stalemate carries risks. Zelenskiy may fall out of public favour. The Western public has forgotten the scandal surrounding his administration and the fact that many in the country did not like him – at least before the war forged a new unity. But a stalemate and war of attrition has a tendency to bring down politicians. And if Zelenskiy is gone, who is to say that a peace won't be negotiated?

But NATO doesn't want that – or at least the Anglo-Americans don't.

Will NATO intervene? This discussion ebbs and flows and I'm sure there's a rather animated series of debates taking place within Western corridors of power.

But while they're debating, a side-story may push the issue – if it's a side issue and not a deliberate machination. It's not always easy to tell, is it?

The Polish border is becoming rather tense and it's possible at some point a group of Polish paramilitaries labeled as volunteers or some such could cross into Ukraine. The question then is – what will happen?

Wagner is (according to reports) sitting nearby in Belarus and they might move to block such a Polish advance – there have been strong hints to say the least. At that point, lots of things could happen. It could drag Belarus into the conflict – or the whole of NATO. Such a side conflict which also has the potential to be laden with extant historical considerations and debate may prove (or be used as) the catalyst for a NATO intervention.

This is further complicated by the fact that Wagner seems (at times) to be at odds with Moscow and Prigozhin seems willing to pursue his own policies and interests. The jury is still out regarding whether or not Prigozhin has or had Western contacts and the role they might have played with regard to his June mutiny. The situation is murky to say the least. It seems unlikely that Putin would risk giving NATO justification for a direct intervention but he may not be fully in control of these events. The question is this – if the war suddenly expands was it a series of unfortunate events or the result of a deliberate design? If the latter, the orchestration wouldn't be taking place in Moscow but in Washington and Brussels.

Kyiv for its part is obviously trying to provoke Moscow by means of drone strikes. This too has the potential to escalate the war, which Kyiv at this point wants to see take place. Russia retaliates and their strikes on infrastructure generate a great deal of news coverage as the mainstream media uses the images to try and whip up the Western public which is clearly losing interest.

There is also a spectrum to Western support for the war. Some want an escalation and this kind of tit-for-tat strike and response dynamic taking place is being used by those who want to escalate the war, just as they might use and exploit a situation on the Polish border. Others are happy with the status quo and are happy to extend the war of attrition. They don't care about the death and suffering. They'll just keep trickling arms and aid into the country as long as there are Ukrainians willing to bleed, lose limbs, and die. The war has entangled Moscow and serves a larger geostrategic purpose. As far as they're concerned, if it drags on for another five years, so much the better.

The situation is not stable but at this point in time the term stalemate definitely comes to mind. Will the arrival of weapons make a difference or is it already too late? This is a discussion taking place right now in all the centres of Western power including Kyiv itself.

If the die has been cast concerning escalation and NATO involvement is a given, then it may simply be a question of time. When everything is in place you'll see a disturbance on the Polish border or something like it which will justify expansion and escalation - the expected new phase of the war. The military command of NATO will be certain to provide some kind of fig leaf or justification for their entrance into the conflict.

See also:

http://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2023/06/a-ukraine-miscellany-xviii-new-phase-in.html