Romania's Failed Election and Shift to the Right

https://www.politico.eu/article/could-romania-break-eu-and-nato-elections-russia-influence-moldova-georgia-calin-georgescu/

https://evangelicalfocus.com/europe/29889/at-a-time-of-social-upheaval-christians-in-romania-are-very-interested-in-how-politics-and-theology-relate-to-each-other

In late November, Romania's presidential election resulted in Calin Georgescu winning the first round with 23% of the vote. He stood poised to win the second (run-off) round and yet before this could happen, the state intervened and annulled the election. After battles in the courts, it was decided that entirely new elections would take place in May of 2025. It is unclear as to whether or not Georgescu will be allowed to run again - even though he continues to lead in every poll.

Klaus Iohannis, the current president (who is known as being not only pro-NATO but desires to become the organisation's Secretary-General), has played an important role in keeping Romania aligned with the West and one has to wonder what part he might have played (on behalf of Brussels and Washington) in maneuvering to keep Georgescu out of office. It's clear enough that the Right-wing parties believe him to have played a part and as such they are attempting to impeach him. His term ended in December but the courts extended his term until the spring election.

Under the Romanian system, the president wields considerable power. It's not a full presidential/executive system as seen in the US or France, but it differs significantly from standard parliamentary models wherein the president is merely a ceremonial head of state and only wields real power in a caretaker role.

In 1989, Romania was something of a holdout when it came to the collapse of the Iron Curtain. Long a member of the Warsaw Pact, it nevertheless often steered a course independent from Moscow - leading to significant trade with the West. Ceaușescu completely rejected Gorbachev's glasnost and perestroika reforms and as such when the revolution finally erupted in mid-December, it led to a brief if somewhat fierce explosion of violence with at least 1,100 killed - and yet some estimate the death toll was well over 7,000.

Romania was the only nation in Eastern Europe that went through this process - though some of the former Soviet states also experienced civil war, and for some the tensions remain to this day. This is especially true in Moldova, Central Asia and the Caucasus. For Romania, the break with the Cold War and Stalinism was complete, and the country took a decided turn toward the West. All of the Warsaw Pact nations would over the next 10-15 years join up with NATO and many with the EU, but after a generation, there have been some doubts about that choice and the embrace of Liberalism.

As various Right-wing movements have re-emerged in the wake of the EU's ascent, Romania has (until now) been largely exempt from this phenomenon. This has generated a fair bit of discussion among analysts and historians. This is all the more striking given that Romania has a significant fascist history connected to the war and given its nuances and complicated history, it's wide open to revisionist and sentimentalist tendencies. And yet this hadn't happened until just the past few years. There have been a handful of Right-wing parties since 1991 - with many more emerging over the past decade. And yet, they've never been able to gain any traction - that is until Georgescu who is actually a political independent.

This is why his sudden success in the first round of the November elections generated such a shock and a social and political crisis. It seemingly came out of nowhere and the Romanian and NATO Establishments have tried to put a spin on it - blaming it on a Russian-inspired campaign. But even if Putin poured large sums of money into Romanian politics, that doesn't really explain the support Georgescu has received and still receives in the latest polls. It is a sign of the times and is indicative of the crisis emerging with regard to Western Liberalism and the geopolitics of the EU and NATO. It will be interesting to say the least to observe the campaign and the results of the spring election. A lot of people in Europe and even Washington will be watching. The US has bases in Romania and the country plays an important role in America's plans for Europe vis-à-vis Moscow. And it's worth noting that neighbouring Moldova also comes into play. As historic Bessarabia, the nation is closely tied to Romanian history and identity. The country itself is an amalgam of Romanian and Russian imperial interests. By the latter I refer to Russia under the Tsars and the contest for Southeastern Europe that emerged between Moscow, Vienna, and the Ottomans. Once on the Romanian-Russian frontier, today's Moldova is sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine and its population is divided between ethnic Romanians, Ukrainians, and a significant pro-Moscow population - especially in the Transnistria enclave. The emergent Romanian far-right (in some cases) aspires to re-unite Moldavia and Romania. In fact, this sentiment does not belong exclusively to the Far Right. Even Centre-Right conservatives such as the current president Klaus Iohannis have expressed interest in unification and yet the situation is so delicate and difficult - especially in light of the Ukraine War, that few wish to speak of it in specific terms.

The Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) is the Right-wing party founded in 2019 that received the most votes after Georgescu with just under 14%. It will be interesting to see if their numbers surge. Though definitely espousing some aspects of Far-Right ideology and some sympathy for WWII-era Romanian fascism, the party nevertheless supports NATO and the EU and would thus remain within the acceptable parameters of both Washington and Brussels. But given these developments, the spirit of the party is likely to change. It's worth noting that it also has a Moldovan branch which opened up in 2021 - but has yet to gain any seats.

The Evangelical Focus article suggests some Christians in Romania see Georgescu as messiah figure - which is rightly condemned. But this is clearly not the case in the United States where Balaam-figures like Franklin Graham can publicly attach messianic language to Trump and this is accepted. Those who might take offense are reticent to speak out as the cult has largely overtaken conservative Evangelical circles. One is hard pressed to find any voices calling Graham out for his heretical application of Scripture - let alone his blasphemy. It testifies to just how far gone American 'Conservative' Christianity actually is - and the judgment on both nation and Church represented by Trump. Let's hope things take a better turn for the Church in Romania.