Candid Talk Within the Oil Industry on Venezuela and Iran, and the Potential Geopolitics of a Larger Regional War

https://thegrayzone.substack.com/p/iran-war-described-as-biggest-opportunity

This article is based on a January 2026 summit held in Washington DC - just weeks after Maduro's kidnapping and before the latest Iran War.

It's no great secret, but to read the actual words of industry insiders regarding Trump's push to invest in Venezuela is helpful. There was every indication that oil industry leaders were less than thrilled with Trump's push to invest. The infrastructure is in such a state of collapse that Trump's claims of flowing oil and riches are but pipe dreams, no pun intended.

Corruption certainly played a part in Venezuela's decline, but the American public has been kept ignorant of the multi-decade war the US has waged on Venezuela and the part this played in that very decaying infrastructure.

It's also no great surprise to learn the industry insiders were ecstatic at the thought of Iran opening up to Western markets. And yes, there is a geo-strategic angle to this in that Russia loses an ally and China loses (at least in part) yet another supplier. Before the invasion, China received 10-15% of its oil from Iran, so while the loss is not fatal, they will feel it. This is in addition to the potential loss of Venezuelan crude which supplies 3-4% of Beijing's supply.

These wars are about resources but they're also about geopolitics and while the US is picking off its weaker enemies and resistance - this is all marching toward a future conflict with Beijing - one that many deem inevitable.

As I've written before, by 2010 the hope was that the growing threat of China would be allayed by internal tumult and the collapse of the CCP. The installation of Xi Jinping changed that and while the US was bogged down with Libya, Syria, ISIS, and then Ukraine and Gaza - Beijing continued to extend its reach and influence - especially with the launch of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013.

For some imperialist-minded strategists, to leave Iran in an adversarial (if sidelined) posture as per the 2015 JCPOA was to leave an enemy (as it were) 'behind the frontline' and dangerous. Because to speak of Iran also meant to speak of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, as well as the Houthis in Yemen. The latter are certain to know that they are even now being targeted for elimination by planners in both Washington and Tel Aviv. I would assume they are waiting for the right moment to enter the current war.

Once the Iranian network is neutralised, that leaves Moscow and Beijing. Some viewing war with China as inevitable want to move sooner rather than later. Others believe it far more prudent to see Russia sorted out before such a move is made against a then isolated CCP.

But....

If the collapse of Iran leads to renewed fighting in Iraq and a Shia uprising, this could lead to a new civil war (perhaps both in Iran and Iraq). As the Kurds are being potentially prepared to enter the Iranian fray, this runs the risk of Turkish involvement - and depending on how things develop, it could also entangle the new regime in Syria. Iran could descend into civil war by other means as well - no one really knows at this point. And the tensions and open fighting seem to be escalating on the Afghan-Pakistani border. As mentioned, the situation in Yemen is all but bound to intensify and in all these cases other Gulf interests will become involved as will the Americans, British, and the French. Macron has signalled an eagerness to get involved. The French Navy stands ready.

It's not hard to imagine a situation in which fighting could break out from the Levantine seaboard of the Mediterranean to the frontiers of India - a Middle East on fire.

This is all speculation and while something short of a worst-case scenario it's bad enough and yet not too hard to imagine. God forbid, but these are the kinds of things unleashed as capitalist regimes scramble to control remaining resources and keep them out of the hands of adversaries - restricting their growth and straining their economies. Let's hope this doesn't lead to the next world war.