Macron's Latest Defeat

https://www.politico.eu/article/france-germany-next-generation-fighter-jet-project-collapse/

In the grand scheme of things this is a minor story but it points to some of the internal struggles within Europe, which in turn plays out within the larger political spectrum. With the departure of Angela Merkel and in light of Franco-German relations (such as the 2019 Aachen Treaty), Macron stood at the pinnacle of European politics. France was set to re-assert the leadership it believes itself entitled to.

But between Yellow Vest protests, numerous scandals, an endless cycle of parliamentary collapses and re-shuffling crises resulted in Macron's degradation. As president of France, he remains a major player on the European scene but his star has definitely faded and now with only a year left in office and low approval ratings, his political capital has more or less been used up.

The near collapse of this joint fighter project is but another example of this. At one time France and Germany sat at the pinnacle of European power and given the threat of NATO collapse under Trump's first administration, they were clearly preparing for an independent European military. That's certainly still on the table but the power dynamics in Europe have shifted. Due to the rise of Right-wing parties, the politics of immigration, and the leadership and angling of Ursula von der Leyen, the axis of power has grown a bit fuzzy and in many respects Giorgia Meloni has come out as able to wield more direct influence. She's still riding high at the present as Macron faces his sunset.

The latest fighter platforms rely on complex ground based monitoring and targeting in coordination with a drone cloud. The days of dogfighting and fighter aces are a thing of the past. The new fighters will act like mother ships or coordination platforms - launching missiles at targets the pilots don't even see. The dramatic shift in aerial combat was on display during the May 2025 conflict between India and Pakistan. Utilizing Chinese J-10's and a complex air-ground-missile coordination system, the Pakistani's shot down four (or five) Indian aircraft - including French manufactured Rafales and (by some accounts) a Mirage fighter. It wasn't a good day for French military aviation and made for some pretty bad marketing. Chengdu Aircraft saw its stock rise and this incident has certainly generated interest in the J-10.

For Macron and the agenda of French leadership, it was another defeat - akin to Australia's abandonment of the submarine deal in light of the 2021 AUKUS Treaty. At US behest, Canberra walked away from the French submarines they had contracted and instead cut a deal with Washington and General Dynamics for several Virginia-class nuclear subs. Paris viewed the move as a complete betrayal by allies.

The fact that Germany may abandon this fighter project and turn instead to the UK-Italian and Japanese joint project would simply aggravate the insult - given the tension between Rome and Paris and the fact that it was Macron more than any other European leader who worked to bring London back into the nexus of European trade and politics post-Brexit. In a gesture of goodwill and for the first time in its history, the Bayeux Tapestry is set to be on display in the UK this fall.

Macron has a year left to try and salvage his legacy. He has been a great friend to the bankers and other elements connected to finance, but his public perception has collapsed and his larger agenda has fallen short. Many in France detest him and continue to resent his pension reforms and his perceived arrogance. He holds the lowest approval ratings of any French president in the past seventy years - a crisis so acute that some are wondering if the Fifth Republic has run its course and the time has come for a new system. His ordering of France's lone aircraft carrier to the Eastern Mediterranean is an attempt to salvage his relevance in Middle Eastern geopolitics. He has signalled a willingness to be involved in escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz - a move he undoubtedly hopes will give France a seat at the table and access to future investment.

This story has no direct bearing on Christians or Christianity in Europe but is simply part of a larger story of political shifts and the uncertainty brought on by everything from Brexit and Trump to the Ukraine War and the rise of right-wing politicians like Orban and Meloni. For France, the fact that Marine LePen has been effectively banned from the 2027 presidential race is significant but the National Rally (RN) can still take power, and though LePen would not sit in the Elysée Palace, she could still wield considerable influence. The continued collapse of Macron's presidency may very well pave the way for the RN (the former Front National) to finally win in the second round and take power. This is pertinent as more and more European Christians are becoming engaged in politics and due to the influence of demagogues and 'worldview' teachers they are steadily migrating toward the Right. Evangelicalism is growing rapidly in France and while many supported Macron, the data suggests that many are turning to the Right and the RN. This isn't surprising, though it is disappointing given that RN's Front National foundations are rooted in OAS right-wing extremism, the remnants of Vichy, and even some ex-Waffen SS members.

Marine LePen has attempted to re-brand the party, but she still is benefitting from the capital built up by her father Jean-Marie (1928-2025) who started the party in the early 1970's not long after De Gaulle's exit and when memory of the war was still pretty fresh in the public mind.