Suspicions Everywhere: Radiation Clouds and Fire at the SVR

While at this point there's no evidence of arson, the fire at the headquarters of one of Russia's top intelligence agencies (the SVR) is suspicious. Yes, there was remodeling work being done which may explain its origin but it must also be admitted that construction and renovation provide one of the easiest and most convenient scenarios for sabotage. This is especially true when subcontractors are used.

It may just be an accident related to sloppy workmanship or poor management or it may have been deliberate. Ideally a hostile intelligence agency would want to cover their tracks and yet also leave (or send) some sort of signal, letting the SVR know it was deliberate.

Why would a hostile intelligence agency start such a fire? Sabotage? That's probably the least likely scenario. Theft of materials or some form of targeted destruction is more likely. If this occurred, this would serve as the signal.

It's a story in progress and warrants watching, though I doubt the truth of it will ever come out. Even if it was just an accident it's understandable that the Russians would be suspicious. If there's some other angle to it, it is unlikely Moscow will admit to it, let alone tell the whole story. We're all but openly back into a form of the Cold War. This reality itself belies the Trump-Putin collusion claim. Trump himself may not be actively pursuing an anti-Russia agenda but he hasn't taken a friendly posture either and his administration as well as the whole of the US system has escalated tensions even since he's come into office.

The public doesn't realise it, but the new Cold War has been the case since the Bush administration announced withdrawal from the ABM treaty in December 2001. Russia and the US danced around for a few years, tinkering with treaties and toying with new relationship scenarios but by 2011, the US entered a new phase of policy and since then Moscow has been an all but openly declared enemy.

Even while the US and Russia were 'friendly' during the 1990s, the US was actively working to destroy Moscow's influence, rig its elections, manipulate and loot its economy and effectively dismantle and fragment the country. September 11 provided an occasion to escalate the US agenda. As the relationship continued to sour over the next decade the US took the next step and by 2011 was sending signals that it desired regime change and was preparing for an eventual war.

Things have gotten so bad that even what may be an accidental fire has to be viewed with a degree of suspicion. You can be sure if a fire broke out at Langley, fingers would point to Moscow. That said, the US government would not openly declare it. It would leak the suggestion to the media but would most likely issue public denials.

Additionally France has detected what is being described as a radiation cloud which seems to have floated across Europe from the East. Based on their analysis of both the makeup of the radiation and the way it's tracking they've determined the source to be Russia. To be more specific the region between the Volga and the Urals which means it could also be from Kazakhstan. The latter nation formerly part of the USSR played host to Soviet nuclear testing on a massive scale and many portions of it are still contaminated. Upon gaining independence in the early 1990s Kazakhstan rid itself of the leftover Soviet nuclear arsenal. The US got involved in the process and also took some of the goods. There was a real fear of nuclear weapons disappearing and becoming available on the black market. There are some pretty intriguing stories from that chapter of history... hunting down materials, midnight trains and missing scientists.

Was everything in Kazakhstan accounted for? Probably not. How then is the cloud to be explained? I don't know. Can the science really determine what has been reported thus far? I don't know that either.

Did Russia have a nuclear accident and are they failing to report it? It's possible but after the Chernobyl debacle in 1986 it's hard to imagine Moscow would want a repeat. The tragedy was exacerbated by the Kremlin's handling of the incident and their unwillingness to admit to its magnitude. When radioactivity appeared in Scandinavia they couldn't deny it anymore.

Why would Putin follow the same course? It's possible he fears international agencies coming into Russia and pressure being put on Moscow to open its books and its doors to inspection. The US could work that situation and generate a lot of grief.

And yet, Putin would have to know that such an accident could not go undetected. It's impossible.

We just don't how this story is going to develop let alone end but it's yet another stick being thrown onto the fire. Mistrust, blame, accusation, obfuscation, theft and murder are at the heart of the world order. Sometimes the volume gets turned up. It's been getting louder since September 2001. 'The War', is on the one hand a falsehood. On the other hand it's a massive Psyop, an excuse, a justification for everything that is done. It is as much a war on the mind of the West (and the world) as it is in the bombs that are falling in the Middle East.

It's hard not to be cynical.