This episode of Inside Story is noteworthy in that the
relationship between Israel and India is beginning to become more overt. A
longstanding reality it is based on mutual interests.
It is for the same reasons that Israel at one time maintained
a solid relationship with Iran. The 1979 Revolution changed that but not
entirely. Despite the venomous rhetoric that sometimes comes from Tehran and
even their support of Assad and Hezbollah, it has (at times) been in Tel Aviv's
interest to cut deals with the Iranians. If it means countering Iraq, then
definitely so.
For the same reason the Israelis maintain a relationship with
the Kurds, Turks and have even sought to establish solid ties with the nations
and peoples of the Sub-Saharan frontier. The Doctrine of the Periphery
basically understands that the Arabs are the enemies of the Zionist State. The
Arab Bloc while hardly united nevertheless has its own tensions and struggles
on its periphery. The states that comprise this periphery are the natural
allies of Israel.
But where does India come in? That's a little more
complicated as indeed the entirety of the Periphery doctrine has grown more
subtle and nuanced in recent years. The real factor here is the United States.
It's because of Washington's relationships and influence that Israel is now in
a de facto alliance with Saudi
Arabia. Obviously it will only go so far and even now the Saudis are jockeying
for position as the reality on the ground continues to change. The Middle East
is astir and the Saudi economy must change or atrophy. This explains the Saudi
escalation of the Middle Eastern Cold War with Iran and even the recent
attempts to find some basis of rapprochement with Moscow.
During the Cold War, New Delhi was part of the Non-Aligned
Movement (NAM) but on a practical level found common cause and was willing to associate
with the Soviet Union. This earned the ire of the United States which long
backed the government of Pakistan. It was through the relationship with
Pakistan that the United States under Nixon was able to reach out to Beijing
and capitalise on the Sino-Soviet split. The relationship with Islamabad was
strengthened during the 1980's as Pakistan's Zia coupled with the Saudis played
an essential role in the US project to bait the Soviets into an Afghan version
of the Vietnam quagmire.
The relationship proved more volatile in the 1990s as the
world was undergoing a degree of realignment. The Pakistanis were forced into
an alliance with the US after 9/11 but even while the US paid off Islamabad in
order to have access to landlocked Afghanistan... the groundwork was being laid
for a relationship with New Delhi.
Why the shift? It's very simple... China.
While the US was happy to ally with China in the 1970s and
1980s in order to check Soviet power and influence, the situation began to
change in the 1990s. China was a rising power and by the 2000's it was clear to
US strategists that China perhaps more than any other nation was likely to
challenge US hegemony and unipolarity. China despite the massive economic
relationship with Western consumerism was pegged as not only a future rival but
an enemy.
This fomented the shift in US policy and even while the
relationship with Pakistan was in the open, the US was moving to establish
strong and lasting ties with India.
Under the auspices of the so-called War on Terror, Pakistan
has gradually shifted into a de-facto terrorist state. Islamabad is weak. The
central government has failed to control the entirety of the country and many in
the US believe the Pakistanis cannot be trusted. While there is a certain class
among the Punjabi elite that remain friendly to the West there are other elements
in the government and particularly within Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) that are viewed as dubious.
Washington has placed its bets and they're on New Delhi.
India will serve a central role in the Asia Pivot, the new Cold War theatre on
the Pacific Rim. The Pakistanis will not be diverted from their relationship
with Beijing and this relationship has only been strengthened in recent years.
For the Israelis, Pakistan is no friend and the Islamists
within their government represent a threat. Pakistan in particular, given its
culture and geography has become a hotbed of Deobandi and Salafi Islamism and
thus represents a potential menace. In most contexts (but not all) they are the
friends of Israel's enemies.
Hindu dominated India finds itself politically alone and
always under Chinese threat. They fought a brief war in 1962 followed by tense
exchanges in 1967, 1987 and we've even seen tensions increase during the past
year. India also harbours the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan exile community which
continues to anger Beijing. During the 1960's New Delhi allowed the US to fly
Tibetan guerillas over the Himalayas from bases in India.
The US relationship with both Israel and India creates a
natural bridge that brings these nations together. The advent of Narendra Modi
whose own chauvinism will lead him to be less condemnatory of Israeli treatment
of the Palestinians marks a sea change in the already vibrant relationship.
That's why people are now taking notice.
Modi's BJP gels very nicely with the ideology of Likud and
once more we are reminded of the rise of Likud and its relationship with
Apartheid South Africa in the 1970s and 1980s. Viewing many issues through the
same lens the two groups were able to forge a strong relationship. The same is
true today with regard to the BJP.
See also:
I wrote this piece a couple of weeks ago. It's been sitting in the queue. I didn't feel like re-writing it but I certainly could have added a section on the Patel scandal in the UK. It's not unrelated. I don't think she was going 'rogue' either. I think she was representing certain Anglo-Indian interests. The problem is she was clumsy and was exposed... apparently without a proper cover. The story (it seems to me) has shifted to being more about May and the state of her government than what exactly Patel was doing.
ReplyDeleteI could be mistaken but on the one hand the Anglo-American alliance has utilised the old UK connections to Delhi on more than one diplomatic occasion. Other times I feel like London is a bit jealous of the way the US has nudged them out of some of their old stomping grounds. I could be wrong. Obviously there's a huge Indian population in the UK and there will always be connections. While the UK largely capitulates to the US agenda and demands, I know there are points in which they differ and pursue different courses. I wonder if some elements within the UK power structure (being represented by Patel) were/are trying to establish USA-independent relationships with some of these allies...Israel for example.
The strengthening of the alliance....
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5070726,00.html