Despite all its woes the EU is looking to expand. The only
countries left within the European orbit that aren't part of the EU are countries
like Norway and Switzerland which have no interest in joining, nations like
Ukraine and maybe Georgia which are riddled with controversy, states like
Belarus and Moldova which are hostile to Brussels and the handful of Balkan
nations which are a source of contention.
Albania, one of the most repressive and closed societies
during the Cold War has broken with its past and become the most pro-Western
nation in the region. The Kosovo project was in many ways a collaboration
between the United States and Albania. For those that don't know, the Kosovars
are Albanians who lived in what was Yugoslavia. In addition to a military
victory led by NATO the Albanians won the region from Serbia by demographics. They
also had a little help from Tito who during his years of ruling Yugoslavia
played a balancing act... a paradigm that collapsed a decade after his death.
NATO member Albania would have joined the EU sooner but the
nation has struggled to meet basic social and economic goals and not a few are
sceptical that Tirana will be able to reach them and formally join the union.
The story with Macedonia is similar. Formerly part of
Yugoslavia, hence its nomenclature, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
(FYROM) has had a rough go of it since its creation in 1991. The territory is
plagued by issues regarding the name of Macedonia and its history with
neighbouring Bulgaria.
The Greeks reject Skopje's use of 'Macedonia' because Greece
has its own Macedonian region and has historical and cultural claims to the
name. The modern state of Macedonian as well as modern Macedonians are not
Greek but South Slavic.
Bulgaria claims that Macedonia is effectively Western
Bulgaria. While Sofia has not made any moves to annex the territory they
approach it in a way similar to Mainland China and Taiwan. As far as they're
concerned Macedonia and the Macedonians are in fact Bulgarians.
This is complicated by the history. One example will suffice.
The Internal Macedonia Revolutionary Organisation (IMRO) was started in the 19th
century to fight the Ottoman occupation. It's most famous leader Gotse Delchev
was killed by the Turks in 1903. Born in Greek Macedonia, Delchev is 'claimed'
by Macedonian nationalists and though he identified as a Bulgarian, he did
envision an autonomous Macedonian political entity.
If you're confused, you're not alone. Balkan history is a
labyrinth of claims and counter-claims and not everyone accepts the modern map.
Macedonia is a poor country and in addition to its historical
and cultural tensions it is riddled with corruption, unemployment, organised
crime and problems with police violence and lack of due process.
Macedonia is also caught in the tug-of-war between Russia and
the West. Western connected elites in Macedonia want to steer the country into
NATO and the EU but have thus far failed. This is further complicated by
attempts to block Macedonia by both Greece and Bulgaria. In this case they're
acting in their own interests and with regard to their disputes with the Skopje
government.
But Macedonia also has strong historical, cultural and even
emotional ties to Moscow and Russia has invested heavily in the small Balkan
nation. This has led to tensions and Russia has accused the West of fomenting
troubles and social unrest over the past few years. While difficult to prove,
it's hardly surprising and one must also take in the large Albanian minority
which has also been a source of strife. The Albanian nationalists (it would
seem) are connected to the heirs of the Kosovo Liberation Army or KLA, the
paramilitary group backed by the West in the late 1990's. The KLA was/is by
many accounts a terroristic group heavily involved in organised crime and drug
smuggling. But if you know anything about paramilitary groups, this is hardly
shocking.
For these reasons and more the timing of Albanian and
Macedonian accession to the EU is both dubious and a little suspicious.
The EU it could be argued is trying to put a positive spin on
their troubles and by continuing to expand in the Balkans, it is expressing
confidence in its values and in the perceived progress the union represents.
Others might say the move comes across as a little desperate.
The EU isn't exactly the hottest ticket in town right now. Many wonder what
sort of future it has.
These small nations are looking for security and investment.
They're not going to join the Eurozone and it's also unlikely they will be
permitted into the Schengen Agreement, or at least they will be a long way from
being allowed to exercise the privilege of open borders.
There are always Western educated (and deliberately cultivated)
elites eager to join up with Europe and represent its values and institutions
in the home country and yet these people are not always the ones wielding the
most power.
The truth is by the estimation of most analysts these nations
are not ready to join the EU.
So why the push? These nations represent the last truly empty
squares on the gameboard-map of Europe. The project of EU-NATO expansion was
derailed in the early 2000's and has taken several hits in the years since.
Brussels and certainly Washington are trying to secure these territories
especially in light of the new Cold War with Russia.
Albania is more or less already in the Western orbit but
Macedonia is still up for grabs and the West wants to put Skopje safely in its
camp before Moscow can sink deeper roots. And again the Macedonia question is
not unrelated to the struggle over neighbouring Bulgaria.
Regardless of whether or not these countries end up joining
the EU, the move itself it symbolic. Brussels is not being idle. Despite the
troubles of the day, there are those who still have the greater project in
mind.
Again whether or not they join, the lines of division are
hardening, lines that if leaders fail to be careful will turn into lines of
conflict. The people of Macedonia are caught in the middle. Most of them are
just trying to keep food on the table but the nation and the region are
becoming a source of contention.
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