15 July 2018

Brussels is not Being Idle: The EU, Albania and Macedonia


Despite all its woes the EU is looking to expand. The only countries left within the European orbit that aren't part of the EU are countries like Norway and Switzerland which have no interest in joining, nations like Ukraine and maybe Georgia which are riddled with controversy, states like Belarus and Moldova which are hostile to Brussels and the handful of Balkan nations which are a source of contention.


Albania, one of the most repressive and closed societies during the Cold War has broken with its past and become the most pro-Western nation in the region. The Kosovo project was in many ways a collaboration between the United States and Albania. For those that don't know, the Kosovars are Albanians who lived in what was Yugoslavia. In addition to a military victory led by NATO the Albanians won the region from Serbia by demographics. They also had a little help from Tito who during his years of ruling Yugoslavia played a balancing act... a paradigm that collapsed a decade after his death.
NATO member Albania would have joined the EU sooner but the nation has struggled to meet basic social and economic goals and not a few are sceptical that Tirana will be able to reach them and formally join the union.
The story with Macedonia is similar. Formerly part of Yugoslavia, hence its nomenclature, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) has had a rough go of it since its creation in 1991. The territory is plagued by issues regarding the name of Macedonia and its history with neighbouring Bulgaria.
The Greeks reject Skopje's use of 'Macedonia' because Greece has its own Macedonian region and has historical and cultural claims to the name. The modern state of Macedonian as well as modern Macedonians are not Greek but South Slavic.
Bulgaria claims that Macedonia is effectively Western Bulgaria. While Sofia has not made any moves to annex the territory they approach it in a way similar to Mainland China and Taiwan. As far as they're concerned Macedonia and the Macedonians are in fact Bulgarians.
This is complicated by the history. One example will suffice. The Internal Macedonia Revolutionary Organisation (IMRO) was started in the 19th century to fight the Ottoman occupation. It's most famous leader Gotse Delchev was killed by the Turks in 1903. Born in Greek Macedonia, Delchev is 'claimed' by Macedonian nationalists and though he identified as a Bulgarian, he did envision an autonomous Macedonian political entity.
If you're confused, you're not alone. Balkan history is a labyrinth of claims and counter-claims and not everyone accepts the modern map.
Macedonia is a poor country and in addition to its historical and cultural tensions it is riddled with corruption, unemployment, organised crime and problems with police violence and lack of due process.
Macedonia is also caught in the tug-of-war between Russia and the West. Western connected elites in Macedonia want to steer the country into NATO and the EU but have thus far failed. This is further complicated by attempts to block Macedonia by both Greece and Bulgaria. In this case they're acting in their own interests and with regard to their disputes with the Skopje government.
But Macedonia also has strong historical, cultural and even emotional ties to Moscow and Russia has invested heavily in the small Balkan nation. This has led to tensions and Russia has accused the West of fomenting troubles and social unrest over the past few years. While difficult to prove, it's hardly surprising and one must also take in the large Albanian minority which has also been a source of strife. The Albanian nationalists (it would seem) are connected to the heirs of the Kosovo Liberation Army or KLA, the paramilitary group backed by the West in the late 1990's. The KLA was/is by many accounts a terroristic group heavily involved in organised crime and drug smuggling. But if you know anything about paramilitary groups, this is hardly shocking.
For these reasons and more the timing of Albanian and Macedonian accession to the EU is both dubious and a little suspicious.
The EU it could be argued is trying to put a positive spin on their troubles and by continuing to expand in the Balkans, it is expressing confidence in its values and in the perceived progress the union represents.
Others might say the move comes across as a little desperate. The EU isn't exactly the hottest ticket in town right now. Many wonder what sort of future it has.
These small nations are looking for security and investment. They're not going to join the Eurozone and it's also unlikely they will be permitted into the Schengen Agreement, or at least they will be a long way from being allowed to exercise the privilege of open borders.
There are always Western educated (and deliberately cultivated) elites eager to join up with Europe and represent its values and institutions in the home country and yet these people are not always the ones wielding the most power.
The truth is by the estimation of most analysts these nations are not ready to join the EU.
So why the push? These nations represent the last truly empty squares on the gameboard-map of Europe. The project of EU-NATO expansion was derailed in the early 2000's and has taken several hits in the years since. Brussels and certainly Washington are trying to secure these territories especially in light of the new Cold War with Russia.
Albania is more or less already in the Western orbit but Macedonia is still up for grabs and the West wants to put Skopje safely in its camp before Moscow can sink deeper roots. And again the Macedonia question is not unrelated to the struggle over neighbouring Bulgaria.
Regardless of whether or not these countries end up joining the EU, the move itself it symbolic. Brussels is not being idle. Despite the troubles of the day, there are those who still have the greater project in mind.
Again whether or not they join, the lines of division are hardening, lines that if leaders fail to be careful will turn into lines of conflict. The people of Macedonia are caught in the middle. Most of them are just trying to keep food on the table but the nation and the region are becoming a source of contention.
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