14 July 2018

Azerbaijani Sabre Rattling

Few Americans know about the disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The Azeris are Turks, albeit they differ from their Anatolian cousins in that they are mostly Shiite. It's almost as if their geography reflects their identity as they are culturally split between the Turkic and Persian spheres.


And yet to the Armenians, they're Turks pure and simple and if you know anything about Armenian-Turkish relations you'll know there's a real and lasting hatred between the two peoples.
As the USSR broke up in the early 1990's one of the most violent and enduring conflicts was born in the Sub-Caucasus between the nations of Armenia and what was Soviet Azerbaijan. There's also an Iranian Azerbaijan which just further complicates the politics of the region but in this case doesn't affect the Armenian-Azeri conflict.
The serious fighting surrounded the area of Nagorno-Karabakh. This area now represents an exclave, an area captured by Armenia but is not geographically contiguous with the main borders of the Armenian nation. The Armenians who live there today are still wary and everyone knows that war could break out again. There are areas near the Azeri border that are effectively 'no-go' regions due to snipers.
To add to the confusion Nakhchivan is an Azeri exclave, a region cut off from the main land borders of Azerbaijan... by Armenia no less. In other words to drive to Nakhchivan from Azerbaijan, one would have to cross Armenia. This is not done. If you need to travel by land, you pass through Iran and in fact there's a bridge being built to further facilitate this travel.
Recently Azerbaijan has been sabre rattling and claiming to have militarily re-captured land in the north Nakhchivan. This is peculiar because Azerbaijan already controls the territory. There are some areas in the north of the exclave that are under de facto Armenia control but most are left wondering what's the fuss all about? It doesn't make sense other than perhaps representing a threat to Armenia proper or to the Armenian exclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
And yet, Nagorno-Karabakh isn't directly connected to Nakhchivan. So unless the Azeri's are planning to grab the southern corridor of Armenia that extends to the Iranian border (dividing Azerbaijan proper from Nakhchivan) and use it as a platform to re-take Nagorno-Karabakh, their actions and rhetoric make little sense.
Even more puzzling, Russia seems to be indicating support for Azerbaijan.
Why is this puzzling? The Azeris are very closely allied with Armenia's arch-enemy, NATO member Turkey. The Eastern or Oriental Orthodox Christian Armenians have traditionally found their friends in Orthodox Russia and across the border in Iran. There are many Armenians in Iran and the two peoples have a shared history that is ancient. Remember as far as the history of the region the Turks are relatively speaking the newcomers, the interlopers. Islam transformed the region but the Turks who arrived a little over a thousand years ago... smashed it.
In the 1990's with the break-up of the USSR, Azerbaijan was largely and successfully wooed by the West. Turkey's NATO membership and (at the time) aspirations to join the EU proved influential in bringing Azerbaijan into the Occidental camp. Western money flowed into Baku as oil deals were signed. Both the US and Israel established military ties with Azerbaijan and it seemed to many that the Armenian-Azeri faultline would become an expression of the Russian/Persian-Western faultline.
This of course is an oversimplification as there are layers to these relationships. We could also talk about the Chechens, Syria, the Kurds, Georgia, the Greeks and on it goes. The infamous Turkish agent Abdullah Çatli even enters the story. Needless to say the Greeks and Armenians have remained cordial. They have a common hatred for the Turks. The Greeks also have helped both the Kurds and Armenian guerilla/terrorist groups like ASALA which were dedicated to fighting the Turks. This led to bombs and gun play from the streets of Greece, to France and even in Africa.
While the Armenians have strong financial and congressional contingents in the United States, Washington has basically continued to support what could be called the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Israel axis as opposed to the Russia-Armenia-Iran axis.
Some Armenians (like those in the now defunct ASALA) have found common cause with groups like the PLO and Hezbollah and yet like the Greeks, they are in many ways caught between East and West.
The same is true of Azerbaijan. While they've cozied up to the West, like the Turks, the relationship is at times strained.
Russia has continued to sell arms to both Armenia and Azerbaijan but their primary relationship is with Armenia who continues to host Russian military bases.
Why then would Russia 'support' Azerbaijan's aggressive rhetoric and military manuevres in Nakhchivan, something that has Armenia quite perturbed?
Those that understand the region believe it comes down to this...
Armenia is in a state of tumult. It has become a front in the Washington-Moscow fight. Western backed elements are fomenting unrest and the pro-Moscow factions are in the process of being forced out. This is a major coup for NATO and the West.
So, then wouldn't you expect Moscow to back their factions and work to countermand the efforts of the pro-Western parties?
It hasn't worked so far but military threat will bring the nation together. Moscow might be utilising a chapter right out of the NATO playbook. It's the strategy of tension. Use terror and/or the threat of military violence, an external threat to steer the nation to the hard-line Right-wing position. Armenia won't last without a backer and Russia is the devil they know and the one who will come through for them. An Armenia under threat will turn to and rely upon Russia and thus the political figures who are in agreement with this necessity, will also find favour.
This cannot be proven of course but it's plausible.
It also indicates that Moscow may not view Baku as a totally lost cause. They can score some points with both camps, re-trenching in Armenia and at the same time building bridges and re-establishing stronger ties with Azerbaijan. Baku has never 'broken' with Moscow but everyone knows that Baku's focus is directed toward Ankara and Washington. Moscow's support and encouragement of Azeri windmill tilting in Nakhchivan certainly won't hurt.
Western media will pick up something like this and run with it, painting Moscow as cynical and manipulative. To the West, Moscow is an evil force capable of virtually anything. And they're right but of course the West plays the same game. Western media will happily broadcast every conspiracy theory about Russian plots, some of which are true and some aren't and yet they will at the same time lambast Russian media for daring to accuse the West of political conspiracy. Both nations and their elites are cut from the same cloth and both play the same cynical games that lead to war and destruction. The Caucasus are like the Balkans, volatile and very dangerous. The stability should not be taken for granted.
A war in the Caucasus could... and God forbid... have the potential to turn into another Syria.
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