Who has the most power and who is most invested in the
Balkans being wed to the Atlantic order?
While the EU would certainly like to see a Balkan
consolidation, given the tensions and financial struggles of recent years the European
Commission is going to be a little more cautious when it comes to bringing on
more instability. Various European powers have their doubts about a full
commitment to Skopje and I don't doubt that some fear yet another beach-head
for Russia within the EU's structural dynamic.
The fact that already dissident and semi-pariah Hungary is
involved adds yet another layer of potential trouble. If Hungary is protecting
the opposition, then they might be willing to foment trouble.
NATO on the other hand appears more stable. While the
organisation has been shaken during the Trump era, the perceived threat of
Moscow has unified the bloc, at least on one level. It's robust but fragile at
the same time. Bringing Skopje on board is in keeping with the NATO's strategy
regarding the Balkans and Russia. They want to complete what was started in the
1990's and block Russia from having any alliances in Europe but especially in
the Balkans and all its potential flashpoints.
Moscow clearly lost this round but in recognising the North
Macedonia name change, Putin seeks to make peace and do what he can to keep
natural allies friendly and doors open.
In the end North Macedonia is a pawn in the larger game. NATO
membership brings security but it's not a security everyone wants or cares
about. It will also bring obligation in terms of military budgeting. The
Macedonians get NATO but they're not going to see a benefit in tangible
day-to-day terms. No Schengen custom free borders with Bulgaria and Greece, no
Euros and no economic development... the only people who are going to be truly
thrilled about NATO membership are the figures within the military and of
course the defense contractors.
One definite positive is that some of the tensions with
neighbouring Albania and the nation's own Albanian minority might calm a bit.
Forces will be at work within Albania to make certain of this.
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