American Legions to Remain in Germany

https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/us-troop-withdrawal-from-germany-put-on-freeze/

This is further evidence of the bureaucratic resistance to Trump's haphazard drawdown of US troops. The order is given, feet drag, the process is entangled and ignored – and then another administration comes to power and slowly reverses the order and its momentum.

Once again, I look for triangulation. Some aspects of the order will be retained. Even within the bureaucracy there is a desire to clean house from time to time and under normal circumstances it can be difficult. With Trump's order they have a blank check which will be used – and at the same time ignored. You can be sure the new arrangement will involve some re-negotiation with Berlin and along the way, whether it involves building projects, weapons purchases, or logistics contracts – someone is going to make a lot of money.

The US presence in Germany is only a shadow of what it once was. Ramstein is practically an American colony within Germany. There used to be numerous large bases but most were closed in the 1990's. As I was stationed in Italy during that period I can assure you it was a constant topic of conversation. At that time the Cold War had ended and all the focus was shifting in the direction of the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the Balkans.

Today, the focus is less on Germany and more on the eastern edge of the former Warsaw Pact nations. And thus while the US presence in Germany is probably (even from a strategic standpoint) somewhat superfluous, the US won't want to break those ties. After all, the US has had a military presence in Germany since 1945. Once you're out, it's not so easy to get back in.

Cold War II has a different shape than the first conflict but there's still a significant focus on the European theatre – at least in terms of the Russian front. I look for a token force to stay in Germany – mainly focused on Ramstein with perhaps some emphasis on the North Sea. But the heavy presence (as it were) is likely to be focused in the direction of nations like Poland, the Czech Republic, and Romania. Turkey would be a key staging point in this new conflict but with Erdogan holding on to power, US capabilities in Asia Minor will remain limited. Turkey rather than Germany is the lynchpin to the new strategic rivalry and it's driving the Washington Establishment mad that they can't seem to dislodge Erdogan – but that story isn't over yet.