Iran, the SCO, and China

Due to post-Cold War geopolitics it was natural that Iran would find common cause with Moscow and even (as of the 2010's) Beijing. There's always been a hesitancy though on the part of Beijing to fully embrace Iran as it seemed like a potential conflict loomed with the United States – one Beijing didn't want to get dragged into. There are elements within the American political system that have been pushing for war with Iran since the 1979 revolution, a point Beijing knows all too well.

The Obama-era nuclear deal pulled Iran into a 'in-between' world in which it would not fully be able to 'sign on' with Beijing and Russia and yet wouldn't fully be on board with the West either. And there were still tensions, particularly with regard to both the war in Syria and the intensification of the Middle Eastern Cold War vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia. The nuclear deal had the potential to open diplomatic doors and bring some kind of resolution to these areas of tension as well.

But after the Trump era things changed. The Nuclear deal was dispensed with and collapsed, the war in Syria began to wind down, and elements within the US made it very clear that Russia was a primary enemy for the new period of 'Great Powers Conflict'. Given that Iran and Russia still share many common interests in the Middle East and the larger Eurasian theatre it seemed natural that Tehran would move a bit closer to Moscow. And in light of America's withdrawal from Afghanistan and the general Trump and post-Trump reduction in America's status and ability to project power – the gates to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) have been opened.

For Iran this opens the door to liberation from American sanctions and lays the groundwork for a future move that will be made by Beijing – the great global economic and currency coup. Beijing is on a trajectory to challenge the dollar as the world's reserve currency and America's financial dominance. At present since most of the world's economic activity is somehow funneled through places like New York and London, the Americans wield the upper hand. The modified Bretton-Woods system and the Petrodollar have dominated for decades. Any nation that attempts to challenge the status quo becomes an effective enemy of the United States. This has been demonstrated in both the Middle East and Latin America.

For the first time, China is set to challenge this system. There are hurdles, not least of which is China's holding of over a trillion dollars of US reserves and debt. Through its OBOR (Belt and Road) initiative, its growing economic influence, and the multilateralism represented by bodies like the SCO – coupled with disgust in many parts of the world with the United States and the way it throws its weight around – China stands ready to challenge the US dominated order. It's just a question of timing.

Iran's joining of the SCO is simply a sign that this trajectory remains alive and that things are moving toward that crisis point – a point that will likely bring confrontation and perhaps conflict – and a new world will emerge from it. Increasingly many of the tools and weapons Washington has wielded since the conclusion of WWII are being broken and taken away.

See also:

https://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2019/07/obor-atlanticism-and-trumpism-setting.html

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2016/03/asian-alliances-and-cold-wars-past-and.html