ASEAN and the Russian Navy

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/12/01/russia-asean-naval-drills/

The move by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to hold joint naval drills with Russia is a slap in the face to China but on a far greater level to the United States which has earnestly sought to court these nations since the Obama era. It sends a clear signal that the ASEAN members are not willing to simply bow to the US, nor are they willing to trust Washington to any quantifiable degree. They're going to hedge their bets and keep all options open – which for the US represents a diplomatic defeat.

While Moscow and Beijing are ostensible allies at the present, a reality in part formalised by their leading roles in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), the truth is their alliance is not rooted in mutual trust, common ideology, common goals, or really even mutual interests. They share some interests, but even these are primarily centered upon opposition to US policy in Eurasia. The post-Cold War machinations of Washington have driven them together.

History has demonstrated that Russia and China are not natural allies and at times can become quite antagonistic. The historical tensions overshadowed the supposed 'Red' camaraderie of the Cold War and the two nations nearly went to war in the late 1960's with the antagonism continuing throughout the 1970's.

The Soviet Union is gone and while China is officially 'communist', the reality is something different. It's really more a case of (or closer to) Tsar vs. Emperor. Threatened by an outside force they have a common interest, but were the threat of the United States to disappear, the friendship between Beijing and Moscow would most certainly cool.

The fact that Russia engaged in a naval exercise with ASEAN in the Strait of Malacca will not cause the alarm bells to sound in Beijing as they will in Washington – but it's still a minor irritation. Beijing may or may not have given the green light to Moscow – in that case reckoning the fear factor of the Russian navy in Southeast Asia (and the hysterics it would generate in Washington) was more than worth it, and the picture of Beijing-Moscow solidarity (whether real or not) is useful.

But here's the rub, the ASEAN members are mostly in the Anti-China bloc, or at least among those that are resistant to Chinese overtures. These are nations either perceived as being in the US column (such as Thailand and Singapore), nations the US once dominated and has been trying to re-engage (such as Indonesia and the Philippines), or nations that are not historical American allies but the US has been trying to win over for some time (such as Vietnam).

Apart from Myanmar which has an ambivalent relationship with China, these are all nations that have expressed concern over Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea. And yet it's clear they have grown weary of American claims, America's practical dominance, and it also indicates that many of them don't believe America (or even the newly formed AUKUS Alliance) can be trusted. And so they're expressing their Non-Aligned status – something the US has always been hostile to.

For Washington it's a wound, and inviting the Russian Navy into the region was to pour salt on it. In reality it's a sign of contempt, the fruit of Obama's hampered but also less than zealous determination and the chaos of the Trump era. Biden has been aggressive in the theatre and has attempted to re-assert US power but the damage was such that trust is not easily restored and it also signals that more and more nations don't believe the US is stable or that it is going to come out on top in the larger regional struggle.