Turkish Weapons to Ukraine: A Dangerous Game

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/11/16/turkey-baykar-drones-ukraine/

Once again it must be emphasized that the Turco-Russian alliance rests on a very flimsy foundation. Historically the Turks and Russians have been enemies and one of the areas of confrontation (among many) centres on the arc stretching from Southern Ukraine, across the Crimea, to the North Caucasus. The Muslim populations (such as the Circassians) and in particular the Tatar ethnic groups have long found affiliation and identity with the powerful Ottoman state to the South.

The twentieth century shifted the nature of the relationship as the Soviet Union took over and the Ottoman Empire collapsed and was re-cast as the secular Kemalist state.

A century later, the Soviet Union is gone and Kemalism has been effectively subsumed under the aegis of the Erdogan-led AKP – a return to a form of Islamic identity which is given preference over Turkism, or Ataturk's secular nationalism. In some respects the present arrangement (though somewhat toned down) is closer to the historical reality than what was found throughout most of the twentieth century.

And yet, because of Ankara's poisoned relationship vis-à-vis NATO and Washington (which had its basis and was rooted in the paradigm of the Cold War), Erdogan has moved into a quiet and unofficial relationship with Moscow. NATO has not been renounced but clearly Erdogan knows that the Atlanticist Establishment views him as an enemy and he believes (with reason) that Washington played a role in his attempted assassination and the larger 2016 failed coup attempt. It's been clear to anyone who has been watching that Washington has been gunning for Erdogan since the early 2000's.

And thus Turkey has found a friend in Russia who is happy to form any alliance that thwarts the plans of NATO both in Europe, and in the Middle East. And Turkey has (for the most part) not disappointed.

And yet, the struggle over Ukraine has proven rather thorny. As seen first in 2004, the US was worked to overthrow any government unwilling to orient Kiev to the West and the nation has been caught in a tug-of-war between Moscow and Washington. The final straw for Putin was the 2014 Washington-sponsored coup that removed his ally from power. Putin acted decisively, backing a insurrection-secession movement in the culturally Russian east of the country and in seizing the overwhelmingly Russian and strategically critical peninsula of Crimea – a region that historically belonged to Russia and was only attached to Ukraine during the Soviet period.

And yet, this has presented difficulties for Turkey as Crimea has also long been inhabited by the Crimean Tatars, a Turkic people with old Ottoman ties, a long persecuted minority that does not want to be dominated by Moscow. The Crimean Tatars suffered terribly under the Tsarist and Stalinist regimes and remain hostile to the Russian state. They were quite happy for Crimea to be part of Ukraine and they have already been utilised by the West and Kiev to oppose the designs of Moscow on the peninsula.

Turkey has quietly sold weapons to Ukraine and now (as announced in November 2021) a new round of Baykar-made drones, weapons that would certainly be used against Russia were the nations to go to war – a scenario Washington is flirting with. Indeed they've already been seen in the Donbass in operation against Russian-backed separatists.

Moscow is undoubtedly less than pleased and yet in this case Ankara scores points with the West and demonstrates it is not wholly under Moscow's thumb – as some in the West would present it.

Once again Erdogan demonstrates his willingness to pursue an independent Turkish foreign policy – an attempt to re-cast his nation's role in Eurasia but one that will bring him into conflict with both Russia and Brussels. Indeed, the struggle in the Mediterranean over resources and shipping connected to Libya has also brought him into conflict with Moscow, not to mention the lingering troubles in Syria.

And yet the informal alliance holds for now. But every time these tensions points are revealed you can be sure the West is looking for ways to exploit them. If Russian troops are fired upon by the Ukrainian military, you can be sure the West will want the world to know it was a Turkish-made drone that was responsible. One is reminded of the Russian jet shot down by the Grey Wolves on the Syrian border in 2015. The West loved it and tried to generate as much press as they could.

With regard to the latest Ukraine deal, is this Erdogan playing a dangerous game and counterbalancing his alliances? Or one wonders if he's playing an even more dangerous game – double-dealing, selling the weapons to Kiev and yet providing Moscow with the information to neutralise them if a real war were to break out. We will not know and may never know and yet the possibility is there – and it's one that has been suggested in fiction and in Hollywood.

In the 2009 film, The International, a Turkish arms dealer sells a missile control system to the Iranians and yet gave the counter-measure codes to the Israelis – who otherwise would have (with Washington's collaboration) intervened to block the sale. A dangerous game to be sure as the Turks would face severe retaliation from Tehran should they discover the truth.

One wonders how often such back-handed transactions take place. Business is done, deals are cut, and yet security and stability remains paramount – it always takes precedent over profit as profits evaporate in a collapsed market. We don't know if such a deal has taken place with regard to Turkish weapons and Ukraine but one must at least entertain the possibility. It's a murky world to say the least.