A Ukraine Miscellany (IX): The Global Context and the Shadow of World War (Part II)

One has to be blind to not see that the world is at the very least creeping toward a global war scenario. And the pace is intensifying.

And do not forget the ongoing conflicts in Somalia and Ethiopia, both of which have the potential for a wider war within the Horn of Africa – and war in the Horn will certainly affect world energy prices. Energy is the shadow that looms over all of these conflicts and fuels them. Even Sri Lanka is part of this and the tug of war, coupled with its own internal political problems and corruption, has torn the nation apart. China has sought to expand Belt and Road projects (BRI/OBOR) and control of Sri Lankan ports, yet now Colombo has been thoroughly subjugated to Western banking in the form of a new IMF package. But the story in Sri Lanka isn't over. There's more tug of war to come.

The situation in Libya is unstable and getting worse and a renewed conflict there has the potential to further destabilize the Sahel and more importantly in terms of the global economy and Eurasian geopolitics – maritime activity in the Mediterranean, pulling nations such as Turkey, Greece, Israel, and Egypt into conflict and as a consequence – the EU. But EU members are in some cases on opposite sides of this conflict and so Brussels (already under great strain) doesn't want to see the present unity (brought about by the Ukraine War propaganda campaign) put in jeopardy by a flare up in Libya.

With regard to the ongoing and complicated crisis in the Sahel – which was intensified by the fallout of NATO's 2011 overthrow of Gaddafi, it's not hard to imagine a wider war breaking out as fictitious borders melt away. Other regional powers will move in and there are already tensions between traditionalist colonial powers in the region and newcomers such as the United States, Russia, and China. One thinks of the Congo Wars and the fact that Congo (DRC) itself is still unstable after all these years. Once again, resources play a part in this – the quest for them and the quest to deny them to enemies. The resources in question are not only oil and minerals but increasingly the entire region is strained by expanding populations and the limited availability of farm lands and pasture, and basic things such as water.

As all of these game pieces are increasingly interconnected, it only takes one war or one weather event to lead to a domino effect. And while the geopolitical power players meet at posh resorts and strategize, people's very lives are at stake. And desperation and broken societies will inevitably produce more radicalism and monsters. You can count on it.

If all of this wasn't enough, there's still trouble in Syria, and increased tensions with Iran. Israel doesn't want to see the JCPOA renewed and frequently bombs Iranian allies and interests within Syria even while continuing to scheme within Kurdistan and Azerbaijan. Netanyahu stands poised to return and the Israeli Right is clearly ascendant at this point in time. The hawks are calling the shots and the last thing the world needs right now in the midst of war and tensions across Eurasia – is an Israeli strike on Iran and a new crisis within the Middle East. There's some debate as to whether or not Israel would be able to pull this off at present and while they are engaged in regular attacks, assassinations, and sabotage within Iran – a major air strike may prove difficult unless the Gulf Arab states are willing to go out on a limb and facilitate it. Once unthinkable, today it is within the realm of possibility.

Iraq is also in turmoil as its own politics are in state of chaos – another society broken by US wars. Once again Iran is part of this equation and you can be sure Israel has a stake in this game as well.

Even Central Asian nations are militarising – some using the Ukraine invasion as a justification for such actions despite the fact that Moscow couldn't even take Kyiv. The Russia army has been revealed as something of a paper tiger and once again it must be stated that Russia itself is but a second or third tier power that happens to possess a large nuclear arsenal and is rich in oil. This means it's dangerous when cornered, and can wield some power in terms of economic diplomacy, but its ability to project actual military power is limited. Never has this been made more clear.

Moscow's sole 'victory' in all of this – if victory it can be called, is with regard to the sanctions regime imposed by the US and its satraps. While Russia's economy is wounded and ailing, it has survived this first round. Too much of the world needs its oil and due to the fact that many nations (indeed many significant nations such as China and India) refuse to participate in the sanctions regime, have afforded it outlets for economic transaction and some sectors of its economy are doing well. The sanctions conflict continues and while the US economic war has thus far failed, it's only been a matter of months and they're still trying to close the loopholes by means of price caps on oil and insurance restrictions on shipping and transport. And yet as was discussed months ago – this is a test, a move by Washington to flex its muscles and demonstrate its economic might and coercive power on a global scale. And yet so far a significant degree of American impotency has been revealed.

Once again, the world is watching and waiting. Is this renewed and increasingly robust US Empire for real or merely an impressive but ultimately hollow and dying shell? Is America 'back' as Biden has asserted? Not everyone is convinced. Will the dotard president run again? Will Trump return? Will the US be torn apart by internal conflict? And if Trump returns, all bets are off, as his reckless and self-destructive pursuit of unilateral hegemony will lead to a breakdown of international alliances and renew the erosion of America's global leadership and the many mechanisms it has utilised (for decades) to manage the world. A Trump presidency is a return to chaos and US commitments become moot and meaningless. As such, many are still waiting to see if the US is for real before they burn bridges.

And this is driving no small degree of angst within the American ruling class. They can dress up their fears in the language of democracy and liberalism but that's just a smokescreen for the masses, fodder for the talking heads on the info-tainment channels. The real concerns are with regard to the global order – US dominance of the financial sector and the scramble for resources. A Trump presidency puts this dominating concern at risk.

For the Europeans, they are expected once more to fall on their swords and thus the propaganda is that much more intense. Suffer they're told, for democracy. It's ridiculous and I think many know it despite the aggressive media campaign.

As Brits and other Europeans face a hard winter and extreme inflation with regard to utility bills, the questions they're not to ask is why their governments have pursued policies leading to this conflict with Russia? Moscow foolishly invaded Ukraine, a gift to Western media and the spin machine. Rage is all focused on Russia, but again, some know better and will understand that these crises are unnecessary and those provoking them are not feeling the pain when the bill comes in the mail. European politicians and in particular the incoming Liz Truss may face a severe backlash by early 2023.

The world is being torn apart by inflation, and conflicts of energy and resources. We're seeing an increase in natural disasters that are being amplified by already resource-stretched populations which continue to grow exponentially even while consumption continues to rise in developed nations. We don't yet know what the fallout will be from the epic floods in Pakistan. While some parts of the world drown, others face severe drought. The economic impacts of these droughts in Europe, China, and India are not yet known and the US is facing a disaster in the Colorado River basin that has the potential to severely wound the US economy. Given the polarization of American society at the moment, a huge financial crisis brought on by collapsing real estate markets, the implosion of the insurance industry, and a banking industry assailed by defaults – all potential realities if the water fails in places like Las Vegas and Phoenix or if the Imperial Valley dries up, the consequences are hard to imagine and some of the severest scenarios are not unimaginable.

This is not to scare or even depress readers. The world is often unstable and dangerous but it's a great irony that during the Cold War things actually tended to be more stable than they are now. It only further demonstrates that the narratives surrounding its conclusion in 1989 and the supposed victory of Liberalism were not only overly optimistic, naive, and self-serving at best, but spun, misleading and in many cases utterly false – and even delusional at worse. The 'magic of the moment' was just that – a moment, and one largely misunderstood to this day.

The world is certainly in a precarious state. We're told to expect as much in the Scriptures. We live in a 'present evil age'. Hopefully for some Christians this will reveal the folly of investing in this world. For those who live as pilgrims – collapsing markets, economic chaos and so forth mean little and while we'll be affected, we will be far less so than others. We're not invested in the system and thus we live (or ought to live) below the radar as it were, outside the mainstream. Given our Kingdom outlook, we cannot fall prey to nationalism. Our allies are not our 'fellow national citizens', 'international allies', or even our 'brethren' in the larger Church who unfortunately (at the moment) are heavily subjected to politicisation due to the theology promoted by the false shepherds that lead them. And as they are invested in the world, they will be taken captive by the frenzies and the prison of their own commitments and the emotions they produce. Our allies are found among the faithful remnant – which is both a painfully small number but in another capacity one much larger than we often realize. The lessons of Elijah and his despair over the Northern Kingdom come to mind.

Pray but do not fear. Watch and understand. Worship and be at peace. But be prepared. Watch and be vigilant. Sweeping changes are coming and are already happening. Just as the faithful had to escape the Zealots (and what they brought forth) in the first century, the faithful today face the same kind of situations but in a different context. Cultures and political orders stand ready to collapse. It's easier to deal with if you're not invested and if you haven't made an idol of your career, your portfolio, your social status, or even your house. Fortunes are being lost and won, and lost again. Men are being driven mad. Vigilance is the order of the day and we must pray above all for wisdom and discernment.