Turkey, NATO, and the SCO

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/21/turkey-shanghai-cooperation-organisation-membership-nato-west-alternative

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/9/turkey-resumes-gas-exploration-in-the-eastern-mediterranean

Under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey continues to carve out what can only be described as an independent geopolitical course. Long viewed as an essential member of NATO, due to its unique cultural and geographical position, under Erdogan's AKP the Eurasian nation continues to anger its longtime allies and sponsors by reaching out to Western rivals and adversaries and in pursuing policies that the EU and NATO would describe as reckless, defiant, and even treacherous.

This has been the case since the early 2002 when the AKP first came to power, and yet Erdogan further (and significantly) shifted his policy after the 2016 coup attempt – a violent attempt at his overthrow which he believes NATO spearheaded. Since that time Turkey has continued to anger Washington but the Americans don't want to lose Ankara – it's too critical. They simply want Erdogan gone but he has been able to outmaneuver them for twenty years. The 2016 coup attempt was the most serious and violent episode but it was by no means the first Washington-hatched plot. And yet despite the long history of tension and antagonism, Erdogan's latest moves are generating a new set of concerns and may finally bring things to a head. All the maneuvers and de facto moves against him have not required a formal de jure proclamation or legal change in status. But that might be about to change.

After purchasing S-400 Russian missile systems, the US attempted to punish Turkey through sanctions and by restricting its global economic activity and access to US markets. And yet in recent days Ankara has flexed its muscles in attempting to block the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO membership. After first agreeing to his terms, the nations have since balked and the roadblock remains in place.

Ankara has also worked to try and bring about peace between Ukraine and Russia – a diplomatic endeavour not exactly appreciated by Washington. While the tense situation in Libya has calmed down a bit (which put Ankara at odds with fellow NATO members), Turkey is reigniting tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean by resuming gas exploration in areas under dispute. These moves risk conflict with longtime rival (and fellow NATO member) Greece, as well as Israel, and potentially Egypt. It's a massive geopolitical headache NATO doesn't want right now and one that has the potential to set NATO members against one another. Related to the larger Libya conflict, the question of Mediterranean gas and shipping exacerbates tensions with NATO/EU countries such as the aforementioned Greece, along with Italy, France, and Cyprus.

That fact that the UK just finished holding large-scale military exercises on Cyprus (its former colony) is probably not a coincidence – a message to both Turkey and Russia.

And yet for all this, it's Turkey's recent move to initiate membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) that may prove a step too far. The SCO is a Eurasian framework led primarily by China and Russia that in some respects represents a loose countering of both the EU and NATO. It's not nearly as robust in its framework but its growing in terms of its influence and stature, and Washington is angry that allies such as India are part of it – splitting their allegiances and obligations. While India is certainly an important ally in the Indo-Pacific, Turkey is an actual NATO member and SCO membership will be viewed as a violation, an incompatibility akin to treason.

The fact that Turkey is moving to join the SCO even while it blocks NATO expansion is certainly generating no small degree of anger within Atlanticist circles and the Brussels Establishment. People are whispering of a traitor in their midst. And that fact that in defiance of all historical precedent, Turkey has been able to foster a relationship with Russia – this was already a source of frustration and apprehension. In light of the Ukraine War it is generating rage.

There is little doubt that planners in Washington desperately wish someone could simply eliminate Erdogan. He has been a thorn in their side for twenty years and has proven resistant to plots, violent attacks, and even the recent attempts to make his economy scream. Erdogan has actually made the economic situation worse and yet he's still holding on to power – a real master of the Byzantine dance it would seem.

The fear in Washington is that the European forces most opposed to Turkey (even before Erdogan came on the scene) will finally be able to make an argument for Turkey's removal from NATO – though no procedure actually exists. Blocked for decades by the EU, Turkey has seen that its destiny lies in a Eurasian posture as opposed to a specifically European one. But Erdogan's policy of true pan-Eurasian Neo-Ottomanism just doesn't work within a NATO framework – all the more when NATO is effectively at war with Eurasian powers. It is likely that Turkey will face an ultimatum – quit flirting with the SCO or leave NATO. The SCO might also issue its own ultimatum – quit NATO or forget the SCO.

The SCO may be what Turkey is looking for but such a move will mark a huge shift in the geopolitics of Eurasia and NATO strategic planning.

And yet it's hard to imagine this happening as the US absolutely does not want Turkey to pull out of NATO and yet Erdogan is effectively forcing their hand.

If it somehow happens, the nations situated on the Black Sea and the Aegean such as Bulgaria, Greece, and Romania will be big winners and there will be a push to bring Georgia into the alliance. But overall it would be disastrous for NATO and strategic-level planning for the US Empire. Turkey is critical to the Black Sea, Caucasus, Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East.

But under the present circumstances – even keeping Turkey within NATO generates a gnawing fear. If Article 5 is invoked, will Ankara fulfill its obligation? Will Turkey participate in a shooting war with Russia? Many in the alliance have their doubts.

In terms of the internal analysis within NATO – within the secured rooms dealing with highly classified material, there is undoubtedly deep regret over the events of 2016. The failure to remove Erdogan continues to haunt the geostrategic planning of the alliance. It was a major blunder.

As mentioned I do not doubt as the tensions increase and the accusations fly there will be even more aggressive suggestions of Erdogan acting as an agent for Putin – which may cause the situation to blow up. It's just the sort of rubbish one expects to hear on BBC or NPR – indeed it was suggested months ago but no one has been able to make the charges stick. A fragmented NATO is certainly in Moscow's interest. With Trump it cost nothing to bring about such a result – His recklessness was a gift and Moscow could rely on his hubris-dominated sociopathic stupidity. But with Erdogan, for him to be acting in the interests of Moscow contra NATO – there would have to be a determined plot, at least that's how it will be seen in the West. It will be painted in the blackest of terms.

Keep watching Turkey because it's set to play a significant part in how the next stage in the game will unfold. It also represents one of the dangers of NATO's proxy war in Ukraine – the threat of expansion, especially of the hot-heads and militarists have their way.