The Meaning of Blinken's Trip to Central Asia

https://eurasianet.org/blinken-strikes-reassuring-tone-in-dialogue-with-central-asian-partners

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made a recent trip to Central Asia and despite attempts by Western media to spin the visit in a positive light – it is being almost universally acknowledged as a failure. The Central Asian states refuse to back US-sponsored resolutions in the UN that would condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and they clearly rejected Blinken's overtures – recognizing them for what they are, an attempt at warmongering.

These nations know that regardless of geopolitical developments, both Russia and China are going to remain significant factors in their economic and security concerns. These are landlocked countries, Uzbekistan is double-landlocked. The US foray into this region during the 1990's and the post-9/11 context is now part of the distant past. The Mackinder/Brzezinski inspired attempt to secure this region for the US Empire failed and if any nation has triumphed – it is China.

The US is presently riding high and yet this present resurgent posture and perception is somewhat deceptive. The US has re-asserted its power and global prerogatives in the post-Trump context and in many respects is sitting in a position of power that it has not seen in probably fifteen years or more. But the attempt to recover from the disastrous end of the Bush administration and its policies, is not just an attempt to fix something broken, but is now a desperate attempt to save Washington's standing in the world.

The unipolar dreams of the American Empire in 2001 were in a context of Russian weakness and a vibrant and robust China – but one very much a new arrival on the global stage. Over twenty years later the situation is vastly different. The US has scored a significant victory in its Ukraine strategy. Russia has been weakened and faces some rather daunting hurdles in the days ahead. Once the situation is resolved – the Russia that will emerge is one reduced from its standing at the end of the Bush years and the Eurasian power that emerged during Obama's tenure – a period in which the economically wounded US was still trying to extract itself from Iraq and pivot to Asia.

And yet for all the victories the US might claim at present, the great test, the great experiment of Russian Sanctions has largely failed. Russia has been wounded militarily, politically, and economically to be sure but it hasn't been broken. To the utter vexation of the Atlanticist elite there remains a significant international bloc that refuses to bow to Western pressure and as such, Moscow has found numerous work-arounds with regard to US sanctions. Washington's dominance and the standing of the dollar are in jeopardy and thus war is being pursued – not just war in Ukraine, but war with Beijing.

Blinken's trip marks an attempt to establish something – to re-establish a foothold in a region the US desperately covets. But even now, it's less about pipelines and minerals, and more about raw geopolitics. This is the region that shares borders with both Russia and China. This is the region that is so key to all of Eurasia and the US desperately wants to re-establish some standing and open some new doors of opportunity. In addition to trade the US would love to work a deal, ensnare some of these countries in debt – some move that could result in bases, spy outposts, or the placement of drones or missiles. It's not likely as the Blinken trip clearly demonstrates, but the US will keep trying. All of this is connected to the build-up for war with China – and what remains a still distant hope – regime change in Moscow and the dismantling of the Russian Federation. The Central Asia republics could play a role in that process due to the connections they have with groups like the Tatars and the various other Turkic peoples within Russia itself.

You can be sure the US wishes it had a strong ally in Ankara – they could be pursuing this Pan-Turkic angle of diplomacy in earnest but to Washington's dismay, the government of Erdogan and his AKP have become almost openly hostile to Washington. And yet as the strategic planners of empire pursue many angles – one opportunity is on the horizon in Türkiye – the May 2023 elections, and the prospect of Erdogan's fall from power.

There are so many things happening right now – and Blinken's trip is but one of many. And yet it's loaded with significance and you can be sure Blinken's trip was closely monitored and reviewed.