25 June 2023

Moldovan Intrigues and Russian Threats

https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/in-moldova-europes-leaders-strive-to-send-message-of-unity-towards-russia/

This article has been in the queue for a few weeks and I might have tossed it aside other than it struck me today (24 June) of how absurd it is in many respects even as NATO continues to push the narrative about the threat of Russia. Russia has been exposed today as a nation in a state of instability and peril. Not only did Putin's forces fail to take Kyiv in 2022, he has now faced a very threatening mutiny and this is even in light Ukraine's failed spring 2023 offensive. Putin looks weak in the eyes of the world.


With regard to Moldova, the Atlanticists are trying to consolidate power and finish the failed projects of the 1990's and early 2000's. There are the remaining questions regarding the states that once comprised Yugoslavia. There is a push to bring outlier states like Finland and Sweden into NATO – a partial success thus far, and then there are the Eastern European questions. Poland under the PiS has been a problem but The Ukraine War has brought Warsaw back into solid alignment with Brussels (EU and NATO). Orban's Hungary is being watched and Belarus remains a frustration as the West continues to back movements that would overthrow Lukashenko. And then there's Moldova which remains divided and represents a historical tangle as it lies in the midst of lands that make it subject to Romanian, Ukrainian, and Russian claims. And even the Ukrainian angle is complicated as Ukraine did not properly exist until 1991 and historically the Western portions of the country have historical ties to Poland and Hungary. It's complicated.

The push is to get Moldova (historic Bessarabia) into the EU but even this is complicated by the existence of the breakaway Transnistria enclave which remains effectively under Russia control since the break-up of the USSR in 1991 – of which Moldova was a part.

The Euractiv article avoids the question of why Moldova is not considering NATO membership. It's the elephant in the room. This is the very reason for the war next door in Ukraine and yet readers can be assured membership is the ultimate goal even if it is in the distant future. NATO is the aggressor but the media ensures the public remains unable to see this and so any move by Putin to counter NATO expansion and militarism paints him as the aggressor.

Accusations have been made of Russian plots in Chișinău. It's quite possible, but the rule of Moldova has been in a state of tug-of-war for years and both sides are scheming and plotting. Russia is not alone in this. I will grant Putin may have attempted to manipulate the situation but at the same time I would not trust the likes of president Sandu or her administration. She is creature of the Western Establishment.

What is clear is that Moldova along with Georgia and Ukraine are part of what's called the Associated Trio – a group of nations (near or along Russia's border) that are trying to be brought into the EU. But all have problems and questions of disputed borders which is real 'deal killer' for an entity like the EU. The Trio (it would seem) represents a concentrated effort to bring these states into the EU while leaving the disputed enclaves outside the border. This is a messy business and in some respects would almost suggest these states abandon their claims. For Moldova this would mean Transnistria, for Georgia it would be Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But at present it's hard to imagine Ukraine giving up on the Donbass let alone Crimea. All of these questions are now bound up in the Ukraine War and its conclusion.

One thing is certain – The Ukraine War was not some unprovoked invasion by Russia, an attempt by Putin to reconstitute the USSR. Those who make these arguments are simply engaged in propaganda or are literally clueless. Putin's actions (wicked and stupid as they may be) are tied in with and connected to these larger geopolitical and historical questions regarding the expansion of the EU and NATO.

See also:

https://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2018/06/romania-and-prospect-of-moldovan.html

https://proto-protestantism.blogspot.com/2022/03/thinking-several-moves-ahead.html

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2020/11/the-contest-for-moldova.html

https://pilgrimunderground.blogspot.com/2021/10/moldovas-gas-crisis.html

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